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Interprovincial migration in Canada

Summary

Interprovincial migration in Canada is the movement by people from one Canadian province or territory to another with the intention of settling, permanently or temporarily, in the new province or territory; it is more-or-less stable over time.[1] In fiscal year 2019–20, 278,316 Canadians migrated province, representing 0.729% of the population.[2]

Net cumulative interprovincial migration for each province and territory (1997–2017), as a share of population. (Reds indicate loss, greens gain)

The Interprovincial migration levels of each province can be construed as a way to measure the success of these jurisdiction. The main measurement used is net interprovincial migration, which is simply the difference between residents moving out of a province (out-migration) and the number of residents from other provinces moving into that province (in-migration). Since 1971, the provinces which received the most net cumulative interprovincial migrants (adjusted for population) were Alberta and British Columbia, while the provinces which had the largest net loss of interprovincial migrants (adjusted for population) were Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.[3]

History edit

 
Pamphlet advertising for immigration to Western Canada, c. 1910

In the 19th and early 20th centuries, Canadians who left their home province to settle elsewhere usually went to the United States rather than to other Canadian provinces. In fact, from the early years of confederation to the 1930s, Quebec and the Maritimes experienced a period of mass emigration to the United States. From 1860 to 1920, half a million people left the Maritimes,[4] while about 900,000 French Canadians left Quebec between 1840 and 1930 to immigrate to the United States, mainly New England.[5][6]

However, some French Canadians and Maritimers were also drawn to Ontario in the 19th and early 20th centuries, when the development of mining and forestry resources in the northeastern and eastern regions of the province attracted a large workforce. This migration significantly increased the proportion of Francophones in Ontario.[7] The Francophone population of Ontario continues to be concentrated mainly in the northeastern and eastern parts, close to the border with Quebec, although smaller pockets of Francophone settlement exist throughout the province.

After Manitoba joined Confederation in 1870, the new provincial government was controlled by Anglo Canadians. The agreement for the establishment of the province had included guarantees that the Métis would receive grants of land and that their existing unofficial landholdings would be recognized. These guarantees were largely ignored. New anglophone migrants coming from Ontario were instead given most of the land. Facing this discrimination, the Métis moved in large numbers to what would become Saskatchewan and Alberta.[8]

Starting in 1871, the Canadian government entered multiple treaties with indigenous nations to gain their consent to take their lands "for immigration and settlement" in the area of the former Rupert's Land (although many of the treaty terms made to get this consent were subsequently violated by Canada).[9] The Dominion government then passed the Dominion Lands Act in 1872 to encourage the settlement of the Canadian Prairies, and to help prevent the area from being claimed by the United States.[10] The act gave a claimant 160 acres (or 65 hectares) for free, the only cost to the farmer being a $10 administration fee. Any male farmer who was at least 21 years of age and agreed to cultivate at least 40 acres (16 ha) of the land and build a permanent dwelling on it (within three years) qualified.[11] The population of the Canadian prairies grew rapidly in the last decade of the 19th century, and the population of Saskatchewan quintupled from 91,000 in 1901 to 492,000 to 1911.[12] However, the vast majority of these people were immigrants from Europe.[11] Interprovincial migration in Canada was at its highest in the first 20 years of the 20th century, and started to decrease in the 1920s.[13]

Out-emigration from Quebec dramatically spiked in 1977, one year after the Parti Québécois won the 1976 Quebec general elections. It spiked again in 1996, one year after the 1995 Quebec referendum. This second spike was, however, 37.5% the size of the 1977 spike.[3]

The cod collapse in the early 1990s and the 1992 moratorium on cod fishing led to the migration of workers from Atlantic Canada (particularly Newfoundland and Labrador) to Alberta. Fishing had previously been a major driver of the economies of the Atlantic provinces, and this loss of work proved catastrophic for many families. As a result, beginning in the early 1990s and into the late 2000s, thousands of people from the Atlantic provinces were driven out-of-province to find work elsewhere in the country, especially in the Alberta oil sands during the oil boom of the mid-2000s.[14] This systemic export of labour[15] is explored by author Kate Beaton in her 2022 graphic memoir Ducks, which details her experience working in the Athabasca oil sands.[16][17]

Influences edit

A number of factors have been identified by academic research in influencing interprovincial migration.

Demographic factors edit

The odds of a Canadian moving from one province to another is inversely related to the home province's population size: the larger the province, the less likely a resident is to move away. Interprovincial migration is negatively related to marriage, and the presence of children for both men and women. Younger people also tend to be more mobile than their older counterparts. Men are more likely to move than women, although men's rates of interprovincial migration are declining slightly while women's are holding steadier or rising slightly.[1]

Interprovincial migration is also more common among residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas than for residents of larger cities. The largest Canadian population centres (Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, Calgary and Edmonton) also tend to attract the largest amount of interprovincial migrants, and there is a lot of flow between these cities.[18]

Economic factors edit

The economic situation of each province is an important indicator of internal migration within Canada. It is more likely for people to move out of a province with higher unemployment rate. Interprovincial migration is also positively related to the individuals' receipt of unemployment insurance, having no market income, and the receipt of social assistance (especially for men).[1] Canadian provinces also tend to lose more people than they gain when their province is in recession. Alberta, for example, experienced a net loss of people to interprovincial migration from September 2015 to December 2017.[19]

Language edit

Language spoken is a strong predictor of interprovincial migration. Francophone Quebeckers are among the groups of people who are the least likely to move across provinces.[20] Francophones in New Brunswick are much less likely to move out of province than their Anglophone counterparts.[13]

The only group less likely to migrate across provinces than Francophone Quebeckers is Francophone immigrants living in Quebec. Inversely, Francophone immigrants living outside Quebec is the group most prone to interprovincial migration, as 9.2% of them move to another province. Over half of Francophones outside Quebec (immigrant and Canada-born) who migrate across provinces choose Quebec as their destination.[20]

Literacy edit

Literacy used to be a significant indicator of interprovincial migration in Canada in the late 19th and early 20th century. Anglophone Canadians who could read were more likely to move than their illiterate counterparts. For Francophone Quebeckers, however, this was the opposite, as literate unilingual Francophones were more likely to stay in Quebec than illiterate unilingual Francophones. Literacy had, however, no effect on the likelihood of migration of bilingual Quebeckers.[13]

Provincial level edit

 
Number of years between 1971 and 2019 that each province and territory had positive interprovincial immigration. Darker shades represent more years.

Alberta edit

Over the past five decades, Alberta has had the highest net increase from interprovincial migration of any province. However, it typically experiences population decline during economic downturns, as it did during the 1980s.[3] Oil is the main industry driving interprovincial migration to Alberta, as many Canadians move to Alberta to work in the oil fields or spin-off sectors. Interprovincial migration to Alberta rises and drops dependent of the price of oil. There was a dramatic reduction after the 2014 drop in oil prices, however, it dramatically recovered starting in 2021-22 and reached historic highs thereafter.[21][19]

Interprovincial migration in Alberta
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   80,837   53,185   27,652
2012–13   84,602   46,004   38,598
2013–14   87,307   51,925   35,382
2014–15   81,540   59,946   21,594
2015–16   56,978   72,086   −15,108
2016–17   50,396   65,955   −15,559
2017–18   55,147   58,394   −3,247
2018–19   52,796   54,828   −2,032
2019–20   56,538   58,915   −2,377
2020–21   44,777   54,235   −9,458
2021–22   73,701   68,055   5,646
2022–23   106,148   49,903   56,245

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

British Columbia edit

British Columbia has also traditionally been gaining from interprovincial migration. Over the last 50 years, British Columbia had 13 years of negative interprovincial immigration: the lowest in the country. The only time the province significantly lost population to this phenomenon was during the 1990s, when it had a negative interprovincial migration for 5 consecutive years.[3]

Interprovincial migration in British Columbia
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   48,593   51,304   −2,711
2012–13   43,830   45,698   −1,868
2013–14   52,281   42,806   9,475
2014–15   61,026   40,647   20,379
2015–16   63,788   37,215   26,573
2016–17   57,210   38,376   18,834
2017–18   55,300   41,311   13,989
2018–19   53,434   40,109   13,325
2019–20   60,584   43,585   16,999
2020–21   59,313   33,937   25,376
2021–22   77,626   51,557   26,069
2022–23   56,933   65,161   −8,228

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Manitoba edit

Manitoba is one of the provinces most affected by interprovincial migration, having had a negative mobility ratio for 42 out of 46 years from 1971 to 2017. This is the second-worst record for years of negative interprovincial migration, followed only by Quebec.[3]

Interprovincial migration in Manitoba
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   11,443   15,655   −4,212
2012–13   9,988   14,994   −5,006
2013–14   9,452   16,303   −6,851
2014–15   10,022   16,700   −6,678
2015–16   10,994   15,875   −4,881
2016–17   10,350   15,474   −5,124
2017–18   9,578   16,726   −7,148
2018–19   9,427   16,778   −7,351
2019–20   10,376   18,673   −8,297
2020–21   12,796   15,600   −2,804
2021–22   15,206   22,657   −7,451
2022–23   13,055   23,301   −10,246

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

New Brunswick edit

New Brunswick has typically experienced less emigration than its size and economic situation would suggest, probably because of the low rate of emigration of its Francophone population.[1] New Brunswick was predicted to continue low or negative population growth in the long term due to interprovincial migration and a low birth rate. However, the rate turned positive starting in 2017, and accelerated upwards afterward.[22]

Interprovincial migration in New Brunswick
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   10,044   11,850   −1,806
2012–13   8,517   11,807   −3,290
2013–14   9,055   12,572   −3,517
2014–15   9,184   11,974   −2,790
2015–16   10,248   11,361   −1,113
2016–17   10,136   9,702   434
2017–18   10,709   10,228   481
2018–19   10,821   9,152   1,669
2019–20   11,881   10,055   1,826
2020–21   12,104   7,514   4,526
2021–22   18,276   10,359   7,897
2022–23   18,746   11,850   6,914

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Newfoundland and Labrador edit

Since it started being recorded in 1971, Newfoundland and Labrador is the province that has lost the biggest share of its population to interprovincial migration, which was especially high in the 1990s. Out-migration from the province was curtailed in 2008 and net migration stayed positive through 2014, when it again dropped due to bleak finances and rising unemployment (caused by falling oil prices).[3] With the announcement of the 2016 provincial budget, St. John's Telegram columnist Russell Wangersky published the column "Get out if you can", which urged young Newfoundlanders to leave the province to avoid future hardships.[23] In the 2021 Canadian census, Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province which recorded a population decline in the previous five years.

Interprovincial migration in Newfoundland and Labrador
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   8,173   7,628   545
2012–13   7,283   6,788   495
2013–14   6,994   6,760   234
2014–15   7,012   6,851   161
2015–16   6,600   6,368   232
2016–17   5,400   6,830   −1,430
2017–18   5,187   7,920   −2,733
2018–19   4,914   7,511   −2,597
2019–20   5,525   7,541   −2,016
2020–21   5,414   4,877   577
2021–22   7,960   6,158   1,802
2022–23   7,795   7,253   542

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Nova Scotia edit

From 1971 to 2012, Nova Scotia had a persistent negative trend in net interprovincial migration. Combined with a declining birth rate, this poses a significant demographic challenge for the province, as its population is projected to decline from 948,000 people in 2011 to 926,000 people in 2038. The destination for Nova Scotia migrants was most often Ontario, until the turn of the 21st century when Alberta became a more popular destination; New Brunswick ranks as a distant third. In a dramatic shift, by the late 2010s and especially afterward, Nova Scotia became one of the preferred destinations in Canada with significant in-migration, mainly from Ontario.[24]

Interprovincial migration in Nova Scotia
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   14,410   17,276   −2,866
2012–13   12,630   16,147   −3,517
2013–14   13,402   15,973   −2,571
2014–15   13,854   16,165   −2,311
2015–16   15,107   14,353   754
2016–17   15,339   12,500   2,839
2017–18   15,509   12,461   3,048
2018–19   15,757   12,125   3,632
2019–20   18,912   13,345   5,567
2020–21   19,046   10,146   8,900
2021–22   25,507   13,806   11,701
2022–23   24,226   15,700   8,526

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Ontario edit

Ontario's interprovincial migrations have shifted over the years. It was negative in the 1970s, positive in the 1980s, but then negative again in the 1990s. It returned to positive figures around the time of the turn of the millennium, was consistently in the negatives from 2003 to 2015, then returned to the positives through 2018 before returning to negative - a trend that accelerated in the 2020s largely due to high housing prices. Over the period from 1971 to 2015, Ontario was the province that experienced the second-lowest levels of interprovincial in-migration and out-migration, second only to Quebec.[3] Out-migration from Northern Ontario especially of young and working-age adults, either intraprovincially to Southern Ontario or to other provinces especially in the West, has been a public issue since the 1990s.[25]

Interprovincial migration in Ontario
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   60,459   71,070   −10,611
2012–13   54,678   68,579   −13,901
2013–14   57,415   71,979   −14,564
2014–15   62,874   71,569   −8,695
2015–16   71,790   62,713   9,077
2016–17   71,717   58,335   13,382
2017–18   69,918   59,974   9,944
2018–19   66,980   60,351   6,629
2019–20   75,188   72,394   2,794
2020–21   56,443   74,848   −18,405
2021–22   77,390   108,408   −31,018
2022–23   70,731   112,660   −41,929

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Prince Edward Island edit

Since 1971, Prince Edward Island mostly had years of positive interprovincial migration. However, in the 2010s, it turned to the negative for a few years before returning to positive again. This interprovincial migration exceeded all immigration to the province in 2015.[26]

Interprovincial migration in Prince Edward Island
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   2,620   3,238   −618
2012–13   2,294   3,195   −901
2013–14   2,198   3,139   −941
2014–15   2,367   3,049   −682
2015–16   2,874   2,844   30
2016–17   3,124   2,680   444
2017–18   3,193   3,016   177
2018–19   3,562   2,900   662
2019–20   4,500   3,350   1,150
2020–21   3,846   2,626   1,220
2021–22   5,240   3,532   1,708
2022–23   5,354   3,767   1,587

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Quebec edit

Since it began being recorded in 1971 until 2018, each year Quebec has had negative interprovincial migration, and among the provinces it has experienced the largest net loss of people due to the effect.[3] Between 1981 and 2017, Quebec lost about 229,700 people below the age of 45 to interprovincial migration.[27] Per capita, Quebec has lost significantly fewer people than other provinces. This is due to the large population of the province and the very low migration rate of Francophone Quebeckers.[1] However, Quebec receives much fewer than average in-migrants from other provinces.[3]

In Quebec, Allophones are more likely to migrate out of the province than average: between 1996 and 2001, over 19,170 migrated to other provinces; 18,810 of whom migrated to Ontario.[28]

Interprovincial Migration Between Quebec and Other Provinces and Territories by Mother Tongue[29]
Mother Tongue / Year 1971–1976 1976–1981 1981–1986 1986–1991 1991–1996 1996–2001 2001–2006 2006–2011 2011-2016 Total
French −4,100 −18,000 −12,900 5,200 1,200 −8,900 5,000 −2,610 −9,940 −45,050
English −52,200 −106,300 −41,600 −22,200 −24,500 −29,200 −8,000 −5,930 −11,005 −300,635
Other −5,700 −17,400 −8,700 −8,600 −14,100 −19,100 −8,700 −12,710 −16,015 −111,025
Interprovincial migration in Quebec
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   20,179   27,094   −6,915
2012–13   16,879   27,310   −10,431
2013–14   16,536   30,848   −14,312
2014–15   16,611   32,753   −16,142
2015–16   19,259   30,377   −11,118
2016–17   19,531   27,658   −8,127
2017–18   20,777   26,470   −5,693
2018–19   21,465   25,593   −4,128
2019–20   25,195   29,631   −4,436
2020–21   22,096   25,040   −2,944
2021–22   28,987   35,516   −6,529
2022–23   24,767   30,819   −6,052

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Saskatchewan edit

Inter-provincial migration has long been a demographic challenge for Saskatchewan, and it was often said that "Saskatchewan's most valuable export [was] its young people".[30] The trend reversed in 2006 as the nascent oil fracking industry started growing in the province, but returned to negative net migration starting in 2013. Most people migrating from Saskatchewan move west to Alberta or British Columbia.[31]

Interprovincial migration in Saskatchewan
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12   19,386   17,508   1,878
2012–13   16,982   16,590   392
2013–14   16,371   18,210   −1,839
2014–15   15,346   19,874   −4,528
2015–16   15,260   19,532   −4,272
2016–17   13,130   18,890   −5,760
2017–18   11,637   20,112   −8,475
2018–19   11,100   20,541   −9,441
2019–20   11,665   23,077   −11,412
2020–21   10,939   18,113   −7,174
2021–22   14,623   24,116   −9,493
2022–23   15,510   21,898   −6,388

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ a b c d e Finnie, Ross (2004). "Who moves? A logit model analysis of inter-provincial migration in Canada". Applied Economics. 36 (16). School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University and Business and Labour Market Analysis Division, Statistics Canada: 1759–1779. doi:10.1080/0003684042000191147. S2CID 153591155.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Statistics Canada, table 051-0012: Interprovincial migrants, by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, annual.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Interprovincial Migration in Canada: Quebeckers Vote with Their Feet" (PDF). www.fraserinstitute.org. Retrieved 2018-12-26.
  4. ^ Thornton, Patricia A. (Autumn 1985). "The Problem of Out-Migration from Atlantic Canada, 1871-1921: A New Look". Acadiensis. XV (1): 3–34. ISSN 0044-5851. JSTOR 30302704.
  5. ^ Bélanger, Damien-Claude (23 August 2000). "French Canadian Emigration to the United States, 1840–1930". Québec History, Claude Bélanger, Marianopolis College. Archived from the original on 25 January 2007. Retrieved 2007-01-31.
  6. ^ Bélanger, Claude. "Emigration to the United States from Canada and Quebec, 1840–1940". Quebec History. Marianopolis College. Retrieved 24 July 2013.
  7. ^ Robert Craig Brown, and Ramsay Cook, Canada, 1896-1921: A nation transformed (1974) pp 253-62
  8. ^ Sprague, DN (1988). Canada and the Métis, 1869–1885. Waterloo, ON: Wilfrid Laurier University Press. pp. 33–67, 89–129. ISBN 0-88920-964-2.
  9. ^ Carr-Steward, Sheila (2001). "A Treaty Right to Education" (PDF). Canadian Journal of Education. 26 (2): 125–143. doi:10.2307/1602197. JSTOR 1602197. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-04.
  10. ^ Lambrecht, Kirk N (1991). The Administration of Dominion Lands, 1870-1930.
  11. ^ a b "Dominion Lands Act | The Canadian Encyclopedia". www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  12. ^ The history of Saskatchewan's population Archived 2006-05-19 at the Wayback Machine from Statistics Canada
  13. ^ a b c Lew, Byron; Cater, Bruce (May 2011). "Interprovincial Migration in Canada, 1911–1951 and Beyond" (PDF). people.trentu.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  14. ^ Lionais, Doug; Murray, Christinas; Donatelli, Chloe (January 19, 2020). "Dependence on Interprovincial Migrant Labour in Atlantic Canadian Communities: The Role of the Alberta Economy". Societies. 10 (1): 11. doi:10.3390/soc10010011.
  15. ^ Ferguson, Nelson (January 1, 2011). "From Coal Pits to Tar Sands: Labour Migration Between an Atlantic Canadian Region and the Athabasca Oil Sands". Just Labour. 17 & 18 (Special Section). doi:10.25071/1705-1436.35. Retrieved 4 December 2022.
  16. ^ Smart, James (October 6, 2022). "Ducks by Kate Beaton review – powerful big oil memoir". The Guardian. Retrieved 4 December 2022.
  17. ^ Rogers, Shelagh (December 2, 2022). "Kate Beaton's affecting Ducks dives into the lonely life of labour in Alberta's oil sands". CBC. Retrieved 4 December 2022.
  18. ^ Amirault, David; de Munnik, Daniel; Miller, Sarah (Spring 2013). "Explaining Canada's regional Migration Patterns" (PDF). www.bankofcanada.ca. Bank of Canada Review. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  19. ^ a b Wakefield, Jonny (2017-12-21). "Alberta no longer a loser on interprovincial migration". Edmonton Journal. Retrieved 2018-12-26.
  20. ^ a b "Interprovincial migration of French-speaking immigrants outside Quebec". aem. 2017-02-06. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  21. ^ "The death of the Alberta dream - Macleans.ca". www.macleans.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  22. ^ "The Implications of New Brunswick's Population Forecasts" (PDF). www.nbjobs.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  23. ^ Bailey, Sue (19 April 2016). "Exodus? Newfoundland and Labrador's bleak finances fuel angst for the future". CBC News. The Canadian Press. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  24. ^ Rashti, Amir Ahmadi; Koops, Adrian; Covey, Spencer (Spring 2015). "The Effects of Capital on Interprovincial Migration: A Nova Scotia Focused Assessment". Dalhousie Journal of Interdisciplinary Management. 11: 28.
  25. ^ White, Erik (4 May 2017). "Youth out migration a problem in northern Ontario towns, cities and First Nations". CBC News. Retrieved 18 December 2022.
  26. ^ Yarr, Kevin (August 16, 2016). "Immigration not keeping pace with people leaving P.E.I." CBC. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  27. ^ Serebrin, Jacob (2018-07-26). "Quebec losing young people to interprovincial migration, report shows". Montreal Gazette Updated. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  28. ^ "Net population gains or losses from interprovincial migration by language group, provinces and territories, 1991-1996 and 1996-2001". Archived from the original on 2008-06-17. Retrieved 2018-12-29.
  29. ^ "Interprovincial Migration by Mother Tongue for Interprovincial Migrants Aged 5 Years and Over, Provinces and Territories, 1971 to 2016". Statistics Canada. Retrieved 2010-03-11.
  30. ^ Elliot, Doug (2005). Interprovincial Migration - in the Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan. Regina: Canadian Plains Research Center, University of Regina. pp. 483–484.
  31. ^ "Exodus of Saskatchewan residents to Alberta, British Columbia, continues to plague province | Globalnews.ca". globalnews.ca. 2018-06-06. Archived from the original on 2018-12-29. Retrieved 2018-12-28.

External links edit

  • Canada's official population clock (real-time model)

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