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2018 United States Senate election in Montana

2018 United States Senate election in Montana

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United States Senate election in Montana, 2018

← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
 
Nominee Jon Tester Matt Rosendale
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 253,876 235,963
Percentage 50.3% 46.8%

County Results

Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Rosendale:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. Senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester won reelection to a third term. Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale, conceded the election to Tester on November 7, 2018.[1] This is the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated[edit]

Endorsements

Jon Tester
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 114,939 100.0
Total votes 114,939 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

  • Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010[20][21]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements

Troy Downing
U.S. Vice Presidents
State Representatives
Individuals
Russell Fagg
Governors
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Matt Rosendale
U.S. Presidents
National Security Adviser
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Troy
Downing
Russell
Fagg
Al
Olszewski
Matt
Rosendale
Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) April 15–16, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 12% 17% 8% 40% 23%
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) February 5–7, 2018 401 ± 4.4% 12% 11% 5% 28% 1%[44]

Results

Results by county:
Republican primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale 51,845 33.81
Republican Russ Fagg 43,460 28.34
Republican Troy Downing 29,339 19.13
Republican Al Olszewski 28,690 18.71
Total votes 153,334 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated[edit]

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[46] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[46] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and Breckenridge said he was still running for the Senate.[47][48][49]

Green Party

Although Kelly won the Green Party nomination, a Montana district court judge ruled that Kelly had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot. As a result, Kelly did not appear on the November ballot as the Green Party nominee.[50]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)[edit]

  • Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[51]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

  • Timothy Adams

Results

Results by county:
Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Steve Kelly 955 60.7
Green Timothy Adams 619 39.3
Total votes 1,574 100.0

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup November 1, 2018
Inside Elections[53] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Lean D November 1, 2018
Daily Kos[55] Tossup November 1, 2018
Fox News[56] Lean D November 1, 2018
CNN[57] Lean D November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[58] Tossup November 1, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[59] Likely D November 1, 2018

Endorsements

Jon Tester (D)
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Newspapers
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
Matt Rosendale (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
National Security Adviser
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
District Judges
  • Russell Fagg, former Yellowstone County District Judge and 2018 Senate Primary Challenger[77]
State Senators
State Representative
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D) $19,499,290 $17,946,600 $1,612,530
Matt Rosendale (R) $5,034,075 $4,515,910 $524,379
Rick Breckenridge (L) - - -
Source: Federal Election Commission[90]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Rick
Breckenridge (L)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 2018 953 ± 3.2% 50% 49% 1% 0%
HarrisX November 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42%
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 879 46% 49% 3%
HarrisX October 31 – November 4, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43%
HarrisX October 30 – November 3, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43%
HarrisX October 29 – November 2, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42%
HarrisX October 28 – November 1, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42%
HarrisX October 27–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 48% 40%
Gravis Marketing October 24–26, 2018 782 ± 3.5% 48% 45% 7%
University of Montana October 10–18, 2018 533 ± 4.3% 49% 39% 2% 10%
Montana State University Billings October 8–13, 2018 471 ± 4.5% 47% 38% 3% 12%
Montana State University Bozeman September 15 – October 6, 2018 2,079 ± 2.2% 46% 43% 3% 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 28, 2018 594 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
Gravis Marketing September 19–22, 2018 710 ± 3.7% 49% 45% 6%
Axis Research (R-NRSC) September 17–19, 2018 ± 4.5% 44% 44% 4% 8%
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) September 6–16, 2018 950 ± 3.1% 50% 43% 2% 5%
YouGov September 10–14, 2018 453 47% 45% 3% 5%
University of Montana August 13–31, 2018 466 ± 4.5% 56% 32% 2% 9%
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) August 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% 5%
Remington Research (R) July 8–10, 2018 2,581 ± 2.0% 49% 46% 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 974 ± 5.0% 55% 43% 3%
Gravis Marketing June 11–13, 2018 469 ± 4.5% 52% 44% 4%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2018[91]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 253,876 50.34% +1.76%
Republican Matt Rosendale 235,963 46.78% +1.92%
Libertarian Rick Breckenridge 14,545 2.88% -3.68%
Total votes 504,384 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

References

  1. ^ Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory, KULR, November 7, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  2. ^ "Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election". Greatfallstribune.com. 2017-10-09. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
  3. ^ a b "WI-Sen, MT-Sen, PA-06, NJ-03, FL-07, NJ-11: Joe Biden Helps These Dems Bring In The Big Blue Wave". Daily Kos. April 12, 2018.
  4. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Refuses To Let The Kochs Defeat Jon Tester (D)". Daily Kos. February 22, 2018.
  5. ^ a b c d Brodey, Sam. "Franken, Klobuchar step up early with 2018 campaign cash for endangered Senate colleagues". MinnPost. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
  6. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Jon Tester (D) Take On Trump & Mitch McConnell (R. KY)". Daily Kos. February 24, 2018.
  7. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D. MA) Helps Fellow Net Neutrality Champ Jon Tester (D) Fight Back". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
  8. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Tom Udall (D. NM) Helps Jon Tester (D) Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. September 27, 2017.
  9. ^ a b Warren sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Tester.
  10. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Helps Jon Tester (D) Fight Back Against GOP's Assault On Medicaid". Daily Kos. June 30, 2017.
  11. ^ "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  12. ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (April 13, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Jon Tester for Senate - End Citizens United". End Citizens United.
  13. ^ a b "Montana Conservation Voters and LCV Action Fund Endorse Senator Jon Tester for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. March 21, 2018.
  14. ^ a b Hogue, Ilyse (April 9, 2018). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Senator Jon Tester for Re-election - NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
  15. ^ a b "United States Senate election in Montana, 2018".
  16. ^ Caina Calvan, Bobby (July 31, 2017). "Montana auditor says he'll seek US Senate seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved July 31, 2017.
  17. ^ Volz, Matt (May 18, 2017). "Storage company CEO files to run against Tester". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  18. ^ Lutey, Tom (October 14, 2017). "Former Judge Russell Fagg enters Senate race for Tester's seat". Billings Gazette.
  19. ^ Michels, Holly K. (April 11, 2017). "Republican Olszewski says he's going to run against Tester in 2018". Independent Record. Retrieved April 11, 2017.
  20. ^ Michels, Holly K. (June 23, 2017). "Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid". Independent Record. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  21. ^ "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out". KXLH.
  22. ^ Robillard, Kevin; Schneider, Elena (June 2, 2017). "Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester". Politico. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  23. ^ Caina Calvan, Bobby (June 5, 2017). "Montana attorney general Fox won't run for U.S. Senate". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  24. ^ King, Jon (September 2, 2016). "Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate". KGVO. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  25. ^ a b c d "Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate". Troydowning.com. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
  26. ^ Gersh, Mark (August 18, 2016). "A New Democratic Senate Majority Could be Short-Lived". National Committee for an Effective Congress. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  27. ^ Dennison, Mike (September 12, 2017). "Republican Fagg insists he's still `exploring' U.S. Senate candidacy". Montana Television Network. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
  28. ^ "Morning Digest: After six months, Montana GOP still searching for a challenger to Sen. Jon Tester". Daily Kos Elections. June 2, 2017. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  29. ^ Staff, NCEC. "Democrats Likely on Defense in 2018 Senate Race". National Committee for an Effective Congress. Retrieved June 9, 2017.
  30. ^ Severns, Maggie (September 13, 2016). "Democrats brace against potential 2018 Senate 'disaster'". Politico. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  31. ^ Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016). "2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
  32. ^ Railey, Kimberly. "#mtsen: former Vice President Dan Quayle endorses @TroyDowningMT". Twitter.
  33. ^ a b c d e f "RUSS'S ENDORSEMENTS". RUSS FAGG FOR MONTANA. November 24, 2017.
  34. ^ a b "@MattForMontana". July 5, 2018.
  35. ^ a b "AMBASSADOR JOHN BOLTON, MONTANA VETERANS ENDORSE ROSENDALE AS TOP NATIONAL DEFENSE CANDIDATE". Rosendale for U.S. Senate. January 9, 2018.
  36. ^ a b c d "Rosendale touts Ted Cruz, Mike Lee endorsements". Great Falls Tribune. December 7, 2017.
  37. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn "ENDORSEMENTS". MATT ROSENDALE FOR MONTANA. November 24, 2017.
  38. ^ a b "Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon endorses Matt Rosendale in Montana Senate primary". Independent Record. October 19, 2017.
  39. ^ a b "CatholicVote.org Candidate Fund Endorses Rosendale for Senate". CatholicVote.org. November 20, 2017.
  40. ^ a b "CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC ENDORSES MONTANA STATE AUDITOR MATT ROSENDALE FOR U.S. SENATE". Club for Growth. July 31, 2017.
  41. ^ a b "Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana". Senate Conservatives Fund. August 25, 2017.
  42. ^ a b "Endorsements | Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Mattformontana.com. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
  43. ^ a b "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Matt Rosendale for Senate". FreedomWorks. January 30, 2018.
  44. ^ Ron Murray 1%
  45. ^ Drake, Phil (March 5, 2018). "Libertarian says he'll enter Montana U.S. Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  46. ^ a b Brown, Matthew (October 31, 2018). "Libertarian candidate drops out of Montana's U.S. Senate race to back Rosendale". Associated Press. Independent Record. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  47. ^ Doherty, Brian (October 31, 2018). "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". Reason.
  48. ^ Barber, Ellison; O'Reilly, Andrew (November 6, 2018). "Montana Libertarian candidate walks back endorsement of GOP nominee Rosendale in tight Senate race". Fox News.
  49. ^ https://reason.com/blog/2018/10/31/despite-donald-trump-jr-retweet-libertar
  50. ^ Wilson, Reid. "Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester". The Hill. Retrieved July 27, 2018.
  51. ^ Dennison, Mike (March 12, 2018). "Green Party qualifies for MT ballot; 66 candidates file on final day for 2018 ballot". KPAX. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
  52. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  53. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  54. ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  55. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  56. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  57. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  58. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  59. ^ Silver, Nate (2018-09-11). "Montana - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
  60. ^ Brian Schatz. "Hey. Jon Tester needs your help. He's a farmer, an all around good person, and surprisingly normal for a Senator. He's in a tied race with a rich dude from another state. Please send him a few bucks if you've got anything to spare". Twitter.
  61. ^ https://twitter.com/amyschumer/status/1054523400092352515
  62. ^ http://www.mtpr.org/post/jeff-bridges-campaigns-jon-tester-bozeman
  63. ^ "Gazette opinion: Keep Tester working for Montana in U.S. Senate". Billings Gazette. October 14, 2018.
  64. ^ "Tester leads with moderation, civility". Missoulian. October 21, 2018.
  65. ^ "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political.
  66. ^ "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  67. ^ "Jon Tester – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  68. ^ https://www.ncpssm.org/pac/candidates-we-endorse-and-support/
  69. ^ "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". www.neafund.org.
  70. ^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection.
  71. ^ Michels, Holly (July 12, 2018). "Vice President Pence coming to Billings to campaign for Rosendale". Independent Record.
  72. ^ "Steve Daines to join Pres Trump at Montana rally for Rosendale".
  73. ^ Corin Cates-Carney (October 23, 2018). "National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Stumps For Rosendale In Montana". MTPR. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
  74. ^ Matt Rosendale. "Thrilled to have @LindseyGrahamSC and @SteveDaines join us in Bozeman tomorrow! Because of overwhelming demand, the GOTV Rally will now be held at the GranTree Inn". Twitter.
  75. ^ Hann, Derek (October 29, 2018). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul stumps in Havre in support of Rosendale". Havre Daily News. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  76. ^ "Steve Daines to join Pres Trump at Montana rally for Rosendale".
  77. ^ Matt Rosendale. "Glad to have your full support, Russ. Thank you! "Matt and I had a very spirited primary ... But at the end of the day, I'm here to support Matt because I believe and I know that Matt will support the ideas that I support." #MAGA #MontanaFirst #TrumpCountry #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
  78. ^ https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2018/10/31/libertarian-withdraws-montana-senate-race/1833577002/
  79. ^ Brascia, Dominick (October 25, 2018). "EXCLUSIVE: VETERAN DOWNING SAYS TESTER BAD FOR VETS". kmmsam.com.
  80. ^ https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/1057067364603314177
  81. ^ Matt Rosendale. "I'm thrilled to have @DonaldJTrumpJr on Team Rosendale! He knows I'll back his father's AMERICA FIRST agenda. RT to stand with us and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! #MAGA #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
  82. ^ Flint, Aaron (October 29, 2018). "BREAKING: CROW TRIBAL CHAIRMAN ENDORSES ROSENDALE FOR SENATE". newstalk955.com. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  83. ^ "National Right to Life endorses Matt Rosendale against Jon Tester for U.S. Senate in Montana". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
  84. ^ Matt Rosendale. "Honored to be endorsed by the @USChamber in Billings today. The Trump Tax Cuts are working here in Montana- creating more jobs and putting more money back in your pocket!!! #MAGA #MontanaFirst #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
  85. ^ "Tea Party Express Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Tea Party Express.
  86. ^ "AFP-Montana Launches Six Figure Ad Buy Thanking Matt Rosendale for Expanding Health Care Options". Americans for Prosperity. August 28, 2018.
  87. ^ Christian, Peter (August 30, 2018). "MONTANA GUN GROUP GRADES AND ENDORSES POLITICAL CANDIDATES". NewsTalkKGVO.com.
  88. ^ Drake, Phil (September 12, 2018). "NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester". Great Falls Tribune.
  89. ^ "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. 17 October 2018. Retrieved 29 October 2018.
  90. ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  91. ^ http://mtelectionresults.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

External links

Official campaign websites


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