Beijing stands to gain from the abrupt end to the second summit between North Korea and the United States, according to Chinese analysts.
They believe that the no-deal summit is actually in China’s interest, and that Beijing’s influence is set to increase as both Washington and Pyongyang will want to work more closely with China to extract a future agreement over denuclearisation, sanctions relief and regional stability.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump
admitted his two-day summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had failed to
reach a much-anticipated deal because of Pyongyang’s demands that economic
sanctions be lifted.
Just hours after the Hanoi meeting ended,
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met North Korean deputy foreign minister Ri
Kil-song in Beijing and promised that China would continue to play a
“constructive role” in promoting a deal between the US and North Korea.
“The international community is deeply concerned about the Hanoi summit between the leaders of North Korea and the US,” Xinhua news agency quoted Wang as saying.
He said that the talks had entered “deep waters” and that it was not possible to avoid difficulties.
“But through continued dialogue, the overall direction of resolving
the Korean peninsula issues – namely denuclearisation and the establishment of
a peaceful mechanism – through political means is clear,” Wang added.
Earlier, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang also stressed the importance of dialogue and mutual respect, and reiterated that Beijing would continue to play a constructive role.
Trump ended talks when Kim demanded sanctions relief
It is expected that Kim will return to
Pyongyang through China and will update President Xi Jinping on the Hanoi
meeting.
Huang Jing, a professor at Beijing Language
and Culture University’s Institute of International and Regional Studies, said
he was not surprised that the summit had ended with no concrete results.
“There remains a huge gap in terms of what Washington and Pyongyang
wanted from the denuclearisation talks and their bargaining ability,” he said.
But such an unsatisfactory outcome may be welcomed in Beijing because “it would not be in China’s interests if the US and North Korea can find a solution to the denuclearisation issue too quickly”, Huang said.
While China officially supported talks
between Trump and Kim, Beijing is deeply concerned about rapid rapprochement
between Washington and Pyongyang, and fears a shift in the regional power
dynamic in which North Korea could be used against it.
According to Chinese diplomatic sources,
North Korea – despite its geopolitical importance – has been and will remain a
useful card in Beijing’s long game against the US as their rivalry unfolds.
“For Beijing, it’d be better to hold the North Korea card than to use
it,” Huang said.
Although Trump insisted that the summit was
not a failure and that it was important not to rush into a bad deal, the
outcome was widely seen as a setback for the embattled US president, who was
eager to score points diplomatically.
Trump says Xi could be ‘more helpful’ on
North Korea
According to Huang, Trump’s eagerness to
make his mark by meeting Kim personally has not only helped Pyongyang gain
international recognition as a de facto nuclear power, but also helped Beijing
improve relations with its communist neighbour.
Wang Sheng, a North Korean affairs
specialist at Jilin University, also said the fruitless Hanoi meeting
underscored the sensitivity and difficulty of making any breakthrough on
dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile arsenal.
“I think China’s influence will expand afterwards, such as more mediation in the related multilateral meetings, or pushing Pyongyang harder to denuclearise the Korean peninsula and reform the North Korean economy,” he said.
“And there’s still leeway for negotiations between Washington and
Pyongyang. I don’t think US-North Korean relations will worsen because of this
meeting.”
However, Sun Xingjie, another Korean
affairs specialist at Jilin University, described the outcome on Thursday as a
setback for China as well because “Beijing has very much wished to push ahead
with the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.”
“As to how the security situation in Northeast Asia changes in the
future, we need to watch how Pyongyang reacts to this meeting afterwards. It’s
still early to say if the situation will suffer or remain unchanged,” he said.
Additional reporting by Kristin Huang