The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.
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Turnout | 59.14% | ||||||||||||||||
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Kaine: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Stewart: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The Republican Party of Virginia central committee voted to select the Republican nominee for Senate by a primary rather than a convention. Corey Stewart, chair of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, won the Republican nomination on June 12, 2018, after defeating Delegate Nick Freitas and Christian minister E. W. Jackson.[1]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nick Freitas |
E. W. Jackson |
Corey Stewart |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart) | May 14–18, 2018 | 355 | ± 5.2% | 9% | 5% | 32% | – | – |
Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 422 | ± 2.5% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 5%[64] | 66% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Brat |
Corey Stewart |
Scott Taylor |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 12% | 38% |
867 RV | ± 4.1% | 9% | 12% | 20% | 9% | 45% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Corey Stewart | 136,610 | 44.87% | |
Republican | Nick Freitas | 131,321 | 43.14% | |
Republican | Earl Jackson, Sr. | 36,508 | 11.99% | |
Total votes | 304,439 | 100.00% |
The election featured a match-up of two Minnesota-born Virginians: Republican Corey Stewart was born in Duluth, Minnesota, and Democrat Tim Kaine was born in Saint Paul, Minnesota.[71] All polls leading up to the election showed Kaine defeating Stewart by a wide margin.
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[72] | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections[73] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[74] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[75] | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
CNN[76] | Safe D | July 12, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[77] | Safe D | August 14, 2018 |
Host network/sponsors |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tim Kaine (D) |
Corey Stewart (R) |
Matt Waters (L) | |||
PBS NewsHour/Virginia Bar Association | July 21, 2018 | [1] | Invited | Invited | — |
Hampton University/Liberty University | September 20, 2018 | [2] | Invited | Invited | — |
WRC-TV | September 26, 2018 | [3] | Invited | Invited | — |
Liberty University | October 3, 2018 | [4] | Invited | Invited | — |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Corey Stewart (R) |
Matt Waters (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Mary Washington/SSRS | September 4–9, 2018 | 512 LV | ± 5.8% | 52% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 4% |
704 RV | ± 5.0% | 51% | 33% | 5% | 1% | 7% | ||
801 A | ± 4.6% | 49% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 9% | ||
Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R) | August 22–24, 2018 | 1,119 | ± 2.8% | 50% | 46% | – | – | 4% |
Roanoke College | August 12–19, 2018 | 512 | ± 4.3% | 51% | 34% | 4% | – | 11% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 10–30, 2018 | 757 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 26% | 5% | – | 20% |
Quinnipiac University | June 21–25, 2018 | 1,082 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 36% | – | 0% | 9% |
Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 33% | – | – | 23% |
Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 32% | – | 1% | 11% |
University of Mary Washington/PSRAI | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 53% | 36% | – | – | 7% |
867 RV | ± 4.1% | 54% | 39% | – | 1% | 4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Nick Freitas (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 33% | 1% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
E. W. Jackson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 32% | 1% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Dave Brat (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 54% | 36% | 7% |
867 RV | ± 4.1% | 54% | 41% | 3% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Barbara Comstock (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Carly Fiorina (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | 57% | 33% | – | 7% |
Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | 53% | 41% | – | 7% |
Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | 57% | 36% | 2% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Laura Ingraham (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | 56% | 35% | – | 7% |
Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | 56% | 36% | 2% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Scott Taylor (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 52% | 37% | 7% |
867 RV | ± 4.1% | 53% | 41% | 4% |
Kaine won the election by a wide margin.[117]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | 1,910,370 | 57.00% | +4.17% | |
Republican | Corey Stewart | 1,374,313 | 41.01% | -5.91% | |
Libertarian | Matt Waters | 61,565 | 1.84% | N/A | |
Write-in | 5,125 | 0.15% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 3,351,373 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
The National Rifle Association's Political Victory Fund has endorsed Del. Nick Freitas