The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk.[1][2] The primary elections were held on May 15.[3] This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2018 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.
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Wolf: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Wagner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Republicans flipped the counties of Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill. Meanwhile, this was the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tom Wolf (incumbent) | 741,676 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 741,676 | 100.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Aryanna Berringer |
Kathi Cozzone |
Madeleine Dean |
John Fetterman |
Craig Lehman |
Mike Stack |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Independence Communications & Campaigns, LLC | February 2–4, 2018 | 467 | ± 4.53% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 20% | 1% | 8% | 55% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | John Fetterman | 288,229 | 38.0 | |
Democratic | Nina Ahmad | 182,309 | 23.8 | |
Democratic | Kathi Cozzone | 142,410 | 18.6 | |
Democratic | Mike Stack (incumbent) | 127,259 | 16.6 | |
Democratic | Ray Sosa | 27,427 | 3.6 | |
Total votes | 767,634 | 100.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Laura Ellsworth |
Paul Mango |
Scott Wagner |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Susquehanna Polling & Research | May 4–8, 2018 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 18% | 23% | 37% | 1% | 22% |
ColdSpark Media (R-Ellsworth) | May 2018 | – | – | 17% | 24% | 28% | – | 30% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) | April 2–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 9% | 24% | 50% | – | 17% |
Revily (R-American Principles Project) | March 13–15, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 4% | 18% | 20% | – | 57% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) Archived October 7, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | September 18–20, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | – | 16% | 45% | – | 39% |
5% | 13% | 45% | – | 37% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Scott Wagner |
Paul Mango |
Mike Turzai |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) | April 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 8% | 10% | 45% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Scott Wagner |
Paul Mango |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) | September 18–20, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 16% | 39% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) | April 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 13% | 46% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Scott Wagner | 324,013 | 44.3 | |
Republican | Paul Mango | 270,014 | 36.9 | |
Republican | Laura Ellsworth | 137,650 | 18.8 | |
Total votes | 731,677 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jeff Bartos | 317,619 | 46.8 | |
Republican | Kathy Coder | 147,805 | 21.8 | |
Republican | Diana Irey Vaughan | 119,400 | 17.6 | |
Republican | Peg Luksik | 93,667 | 13.8 | |
Total votes | 678,491 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[98] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[99] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[100] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[101] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[102] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[103] | Safe D | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[104] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[105][a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[106] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[107] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Wolf (D) |
Scott Wagner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,833 | – | 53% | 42% | 3%[108] | – |
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | 1% | 6% |
Muhlenberg College Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 421 | ± 5.5% | 58% | 37% | – | – |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 22–28, 2018 | 214 LV | ± 9.5% | 59% | 33% | – | 5% |
537 RV | ± 6.0% | 57% | 27% | 6%[109] | 10% | ||
Morning Consult Archived October 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 1–2, 2018 | 1,188 | ± 3.0% | 48% | 36% | – | 16% |
Franklin & Marshall College | September 17–23, 2018 | 204 LV | – | 52% | 30% | – | 17% |
545 RV | ± 6.1% | 52% | 28% | 2%[110] | 18% | ||
Ipsos | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,080 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 6% |
Muhlenberg College | September 13–19, 2018 | 404 | ± 5.5% | 55% | 36% | 6%[111] | 2% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 12–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 40% | 3% | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 20–26, 2018 | 222 LV | – | 52% | 35% | 1% | 12% |
511 RV | ± 6.1% | 51% | 32% | 5%[112] | 14% | ||
Marist College | August 12–16, 2018 | 713 | ± 4.2% | 54% | 40% | <1% | 6% |
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) | August 13–15, 2018 | 2,012 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 43% | 3% | 8% |
Suffolk University Archived June 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 36% | 1% | 14% |
Franklin & Marshall College | June 4–10, 2018 | 472 | ± 6.5% | 48% | 29% | 1% | 23% |
Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 47% | 31% | 5% | 16% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 137 | ± 6.8% | 38% | 21% | 6% | 35% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Wolf (D) |
Paul Mango (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 47% | 27% | 5% | 22% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 143 | ± 6.8% | 49% | 22% | 4% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Wolf (D) |
Laura Ellsworth (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 46% | 26% | 4% | 24% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 143 | ± 6.8% | 51% | 22% | 2% | 25% |
The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tom Wolf (incumbent) John Fetterman |
2,895,652 | 57.77% | +2.84% | |
Republican | Scott Wagner Jeff Bartos |
2,039,882 | 40.70% | -4.37% | |
Libertarian | Ken Krawchuk Kathleen Smith |
49,229 | 0.98% | N/A | |
Green | Paul Glover Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick |
27,792 | 0.55% | N/A | |
Total votes | 5,012,555 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
Gov. Tom Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including 3 that elected Republicans.[114]
District | Wagner | Wolf | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 40% | 59% | Brian Fitzpatrick |
2nd | 20% | 79% | Brendan Boyle |
3rd | 5% | 93% | Dwight Evans |
4th | 32% | 66% | Madeleine Dean |
5th | 29% | 69% | Mary Gay Scanlon |
6th | 37% | 61% | Chrissy Houlahan |
7th | 39% | 59% | Susan Wild |
8th | 43% | 56% | Matt Cartwright |
9th | 54% | 44% | Dan Meuser |
10th | 44% | 54% | Scott Perry |
11th | 53% | 45% | Lloyd Smucker |
12th | 59% | 39% | Tom Marino |
13th | 63% | 35% | John Joyce |
14th | 51% | 48% | Guy Reschenthaler |
15th | 60% | 38% | Glenn Thompson |
16th | 48.8% | 49.5% | Mike Kelly |
17th | 39% | 59% | Conor Lamb |
18th | 26% | 72% | Mike Doyle |