2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

Summary

The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk.[1][2] The primary elections were held on May 15.[3] This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2018 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
 
Nominee Tom Wolf Scott Wagner
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate John Fetterman Jeff Bartos
Popular vote 2,895,662 2,039,899
Percentage 57.8% 40.7%

Wolf:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Wagner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No data

Governor before election

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Republicans flipped the counties of Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill. Meanwhile, this was the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.

Democratic primary edit

Governor edit

Candidate edit

Nominated edit
Results edit
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent) 741,676 100.0
Total votes 741,676 100.0

Lieutenant governor edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit

Eliminated in the primary edit

Withdrawn edit
Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Kathi Cozzone
State legislators
Madeleine Dean (withdrawn)
Federal officials
State legislators
John Fetterman
Federal officials
State officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals
Newspapers
Mike Stack
Federal officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Declined to endorse

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Aryanna
Berringer
Kathi
Cozzone
Madeleine
Dean
John
Fetterman
Craig
Lehman
Mike
Stack
Undecided
Independence Communications & Campaigns, LLC February 2–4, 2018 467 ± 4.53% 2% 10% 4% 20% 1% 8% 55%

Primary results edit

 
Results by county:
  Fetterman—70–80%
  Fetterman—60–70%
  Fetterman—50–60%
  Fetterman—40–50%
  Fetterman—<40%
  Ahmad—40–50%
  Ahmad—<40%
  Cozzone—60–70%
  Cozzone—<40%
  Stack—<40%
Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Fetterman 288,229 38.0
Democratic Nina Ahmad 182,309 23.8
Democratic Kathi Cozzone 142,410 18.6
Democratic Mike Stack (incumbent) 127,259 16.6
Democratic Ray Sosa 27,427 3.6
Total votes 767,634 100.0

Republican primary edit

Governor edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit

Eliminated in the primary edit

  • Laura Ellsworth, attorney[29][30]
  • Paul Mango, businessman and former U.S. Army officer[31]
Withdrawn edit
Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Laura Ellsworth
Municipal officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Paul Mango
U.S. Senators
Organizations
Scott Wagner
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Mike Turzai (Withdrawn)
State Senators
State Representatives

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Laura
Ellsworth
Paul
Mango
Scott
Wagner
Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research May 4–8, 2018 545 ± 4.2% 18% 23% 37% 1% 22%
ColdSpark Media (R-Ellsworth) May 2018 17% 24% 28% 30%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 9% 24% 50% 17%
Revily (R-American Principles Project) March 13–15, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 4% 18% 20% 57%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) Archived October 7, 2017, at the Wayback Machine September 18–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 16% 45% 39%
5% 13% 45% 37%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Scott
Wagner
Paul
Mango
Mike
Turzai
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) April 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.5% 38% 8% 10% 45%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Scott
Wagner
Paul
Mango
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) September 18–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 45% 16% 39%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) April 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.5% 42% 13% 46%

Results edit

 
Results by county:
  Wagner—60–70%
  Wagner—50–60%
  Wagner—40–50%
  Mango—40–50%
  Mango—50–60%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Wagner 324,013 44.3
Republican Paul Mango 270,014 36.9
Republican Laura Ellsworth 137,650 18.8
Total votes 731,677 100.0

Lieutenant governor edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit
  • Jeff Bartos, businessman (running with Scott Wagner)[58]

Eliminated in the primary edit

  • Kathy Coder, political activist[59]
  • Peg Luksik, political activist[60]
  • Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County commissioner (running with Paul Mango)[61]
Removed from the ballot edit
Withdrawn edit
Considered potential edit
Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Results edit

 
Results by county:
  Bartos—60–70%
  Bartos—50–60%
  Bartos—40–50%
  Bartos—<40%
  Coder—40–50%
  Coder—<40%
  Vaughan—70–80%
  Vaughan—50–60%
  Vaughan—40–50%
  Luksik—50–60%
  Luksik—<40%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Bartos 317,619 46.8
Republican Kathy Coder 147,805 21.8
Republican Diana Irey Vaughan 119,400 17.6
Republican Peg Luksik 93,667 13.8
Total votes 678,491 100.0

Green Party edit

Governor edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit

Lieutenant governor edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit
  • Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick

Endorsements edit

Paul Glover

Libertarian Party edit

Governor edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit
  • Ken Krawchuk, technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2014[75]

Lieutenant governor edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit

  • Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur (running with Ken Krawchuk)

General election edit

Candidates edit

Debates edit

  • October 1, 2018: Complete video of debate (begins at 08:50)

Endorsements edit

Scott Wagner (R)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Individuals
Organizations
Tom Wolf (D)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[98] Likely D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[99] Likely D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[100] Safe D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[101] Likely D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[102] Safe D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[103] Safe D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[104] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[105][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
Politico[106] Likely D November 5, 2018
Governing[107] Likely D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom
Wolf (D)
Scott
Wagner (R)
Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 1,833 53% 42% 3%[108]
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% 1% 6%
Muhlenberg College Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 58% 37%
Franklin & Marshall College October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 59% 33% 5%
537 RV ± 6.0% 57% 27% 6%[109] 10%
Morning Consult Archived October 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 48% 36% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College September 17–23, 2018 204 LV 52% 30% 17%
545 RV ± 6.1% 52% 28% 2%[110] 18%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 55% 38% 2% 6%
Muhlenberg College September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 55% 36% 6%[111] 2%
Rasmussen Reports September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 40% 3% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College August 20–26, 2018 222 LV 52% 35% 1% 12%
511 RV ± 6.1% 51% 32% 5%[112] 14%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 54% 40% <1% 6%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 46% 43% 3% 8%
Suffolk University Archived June 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 36% 1% 14%
Franklin & Marshall College June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 48% 29% 1% 23%
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 47% 31% 5% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 137 ± 6.8% 38% 21% 6% 35%
Hypothetical polling
with Paul Mango
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom
Wolf (D)
Paul
Mango (R)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 47% 27% 5% 22%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 143 ± 6.8% 49% 22% 4% 25%
with Laura Ellsworth
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom
Wolf (D)
Laura
Ellsworth (R)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 46% 26% 4% 24%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 143 ± 6.8% 51% 22% 2% 25%

Results edit

The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election[113]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent)
John Fetterman
2,895,652 57.77% +2.84%
Republican Scott Wagner
Jeff Bartos
2,039,882 40.70% -4.37%
Libertarian Ken Krawchuk
Kathleen Smith
49,229 0.98% N/A
Green Paul Glover
Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick
27,792 0.55% N/A
Total votes 5,012,555 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

By congressional district edit

Gov. Tom Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including 3 that elected Republicans.[114]

District Wagner Wolf Representative
1st 40% 59% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 20% 79% Brendan Boyle
3rd 5% 93% Dwight Evans
4th 32% 66% Madeleine Dean
5th 29% 69% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 37% 61% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 39% 59% Susan Wild
8th 43% 56% Matt Cartwright
9th 54% 44% Dan Meuser
10th 44% 54% Scott Perry
11th 53% 45% Lloyd Smucker
12th 59% 39% Tom Marino
13th 63% 35% John Joyce
14th 51% 48% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 60% 38% Glenn Thompson
16th 48.8% 49.5% Mike Kelly
17th 39% 59% Conor Lamb
18th 26% 72% Mike Doyle

See also edit

References edit

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  2. ^ "Tom Wolf Is the Projected Winner of a Second Term as Pennsylvania Governor, Defeating Republican Challenger Scott Wagner". WCAU. November 6, 2018. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
  3. ^ "State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. January 10, 2018. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
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  5. ^ Seidman, Andrew (February 26, 2018). "Former Mayor Kenney aide Nina Ahmad to run for lieutenant governor". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved February 26, 2018.
  6. ^ Rettew, Bill Jr. (August 22, 2017). "Commissioner Kathi Cozzone officially announces run for lieutenant governor". Daily Local News. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
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  8. ^ Seidman, Andrew; Couloumbis, Angela (November 21, 2017). "Lt. Gov. Mike Stack, dogged by controversy, announces reelection bid". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved December 1, 2017.
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  10. ^ Fitzgerald, Thomas (March 22, 2018). "Aryanna Berringer quits Pa. race for LG, blasts rivals, money in politics". The Philadelphia Inquirer.
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  26. ^ a b Owens, Dennis (January 11, 2017). "GOP Senator Scott Wagner of York running for governor". ABC 27. Retrieved January 11, 2017.
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  30. ^ Delano, Jon (January 18, 2018). "Republican Laura Ellsworth Gives GOP Voters Someone Different To Support". KDKA. Retrieved April 21, 2018.
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  35. ^ Levy, Marc (July 31, 2017). "Via @AP: Republican US Rep. Lou Barletta of Pennsylvania tells GOP brass he's decided to run for the Senate seat held by Democrat Bob Casey". @timelywriter. Retrieved August 1, 2017.
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  37. ^ "Cross Jake Corman's name off the list. He's not running for governor". PennLive.com. March 16, 2017. Retrieved June 15, 2017.
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  42. ^ "TODAY'S EDITORIAL: Ellsworth the smart choice for GOP". The Daily Item. May 13, 2018.
  43. ^ "For Republican primary voters, Laura Ellsworth is the best choice". The Patriot-News. May 4, 2018.
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  48. ^ a b Mike Pence. "Proud to be in Philadelphia today campaigning for @realScottWagner- the next great governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania! Scott will fight for all the hardworking people of Pennsylvanian! Support Scott Wagner & #FixPA!". Twitter.
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  53. ^ a b Diamond and Silk®. "Vote @realScottWagner for Governor of Pennsylvania. Vote Right, Vote Red, Vote Republican! #ElectionDay". Twitter.
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  57. ^ a b Mike Turzai Facebook page
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  73. ^ "Green Party Endorses Paul Glover for PA Governor". Green Party of the United States. Retrieved April 13, 2018.
  74. ^ "Patch Adams Endorses Paul Glover". Facebook.
  75. ^ "Ken Krawchuk, Libertarian for Pennsylvania Governor". Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  76. ^ "Paul Glover is the 2018 Green Party Nominee for Governor of Pennsylvania". Retrieved September 27, 2018.
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  78. ^ "Sunday "Get Out the Vote" rally to feature Joe Biden, Tom Wolf". Abc27. November 1, 2018.
  79. ^ Tom Wolf. "Thank you @ericholder for joining me to talk about fair maps & criminal justice reform. I am proud that Pennsylvania now has a fair map that better represents PA'ians & we're currently taking action towards criminal justice reform with a new clean state legislation & initiatives". Twitter.
  80. ^ Tom Wolf. "BREAKING: @BarackObama just endorsed my re-election! Stand with President Obama and chip in today to help our campaign win this November →". Twitter.
  81. ^ "Former President Obama at Campaign Rally in Philadelphia". C-Span. September 21, 2018.
  82. ^ Ricardo Rosselló. ".@GovernorTomWolf – thank you for strongly responding to Puerto Rico's call for assistance. Your leadership and friendship during our darkest hour and your Vision of progress and equality for the state of Pennsylvania make you the best choice in next Tuesday's election". Twitter.
  83. ^ Dwight Evans. "Standing in support of my governor @WolfforPA in West Philly yesterday. #PAVotesBlue #BlueWave2018". Twitter.
  84. ^ Madeleine Dean [@mad4pa] (November 4, 2018). "Let's Turn PA Blue! Great time rallying for PA Democrats with @WolfForPA, @Bob_Casey, @JohnFetterman, @JoshShapiroPA, @DwightEvansPA, @kenlawrencejr, @VAArk, @ciresiforpa, @kmuthPAsenate44, & @Fields4PASenate. Press button D-11 at the polls to vote Democratic! #Mad4PA #PA4 #PA04" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  85. ^ a b Tom Wolf. "There was great energy yesterday at the Chester City Rally The Vote event with Mayor Thaddeus Kirkland, @Bob_Casey, @marygayscanlon, and Rep. Brian Kirkland! Let's continue to get out the vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. #PAVotesBlue". Twitter.
  86. ^ Leanne Krueger. "There's still time to pick up a canvass shift before tonight's #PAVotesBlue rally with @WolfForPA @Bob_Casey @JohnFetterman! Four elections in four years and our team of volunteers grows every cycle. Grateful! #GOTV #MakeItHapPENN". Twitter.
  87. ^ Laura Gómez. "Inspired by these hard working activists & volunteers advocating for people to vote in PA, and very hopeful for their progressive governor @WolfForPA". Twitter.
  88. ^ Tom Wolf. "Thank you @MeekMill, @KevinHart4real, & @MichaelGRubin for standing with me". Twitter.
  89. ^ Meek Mill. "VOTE @governortomwolf! We're in the middle of some important times. Your vote is more important than ever!". Twitter.
  90. ^ Tom Wolf. "Thank you @tomperez for visiting Pennsylvania and standing with us in November!". Twitter.
  91. ^ Tom Wolf. "Thank you @ZacharyQuinto for your support and for coming home to Pittsburgh to canvas!". Twitter.
  92. ^ Michael Rubin. "Get out and vote next week for ONE America/One Pennsylvania!! This is our guy. @WolfForPA". Twitter.
  93. ^ Wanda Sykes [@iamwandasykes] (October 22, 2018). "Thank you Governor Wolf. #WontBeErased" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  94. ^ Democratic Governors. ".@WolfForPA is proof: electing a Democratic governor is the best way to end Republican gerrymandering and protect fair district maps". Twitter.
  95. ^ Human Rights Campaign. "HRC Endorses PA Governor Tom Wolf". Twitter.
  96. ^ PA Democratic Party. "While the @PAGOP pals around with Trump and his billionaire buddies, @Bob_Casey and @WolfForPA are keeping company of a different kind". Twitter.
  97. ^ Planned Parenthood Action. ".@PPAdvocatesPA is all in to re-elect @WolfforPA! Special shout out to @MsLauraGomez for joining us to #PinkOutTheVote this past weekend". Twitter.
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  103. ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  104. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  105. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. April 11, 2023.
  106. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  107. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  108. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%
  109. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 3%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 2%
  110. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 1%, Paul Glover (G) with 0%; other with 1%
  111. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%, neither/other with 3%
  112. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) and Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  113. ^ "2018 General Election Official Returns". Pennsylvania Department of State. November 6, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  114. ^ Giroux, Greg [@greggiroux] (February 2, 2019). "Pennsylvania 2018 Governor and U.S. Senate election results by congressional district: pic.twitter.com/NYLoJbUtrm" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

External links edit

Debates
  • GOP Primary Debate, January 20, 2018
Official gubernatorial campaign websites
  • Paul Glover (G) for Governor
  • Ken Krawchuk (L) for Governor
  • Scott Wagner (R) for Governor
  • Tom Wolf (D) for Governor
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
  • Jeff Bartos (R) for Lieutenant Governor
  • John Fetterman (D) for Lieutenant Governor