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2018 Iowa gubernatorial election

Summary

The 2018 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds ran for election to a full term, facing Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell, Libertarian Jake Porter, and independent candidate Gary Siegwarth.

2018 Iowa gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout61.15% Increase8.44pp
 
Nominee Kim Reynolds Fred Hubbell
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Adam Gregg Rita Hart
Popular vote 667,275 630,986
Percentage 50.3% 47.5%
Reynolds:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Hubbell:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
Governor before election

Kim Reynolds
Republican

Elected Governor

Kim Reynolds
Republican

On Election Day, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote, a 2.8% margin of victory, and carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. This was the first Iowa gubernatorial election since 1998 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background edit

After the 2016 presidential election, President Donald Trump nominated then-Governor Terry Branstad to be the United States Ambassador to China. When Branstad was confirmed by the United States Senate, he resigned as Iowa Governor to assume the ambassadorship on May 24, 2017. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds then became Governor of Iowa.[1]

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit

Withdrew edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Kim Reynolds
Newspaper
Politicians
  • George W. Bush, former Governor of Texas (1995-2000), President of the United States (2001-2009)[14]

Results edit

Republican primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kim Reynolds (incumbent) 94,118 98.63
Republican Write-ins 1,307 1.37
Total votes 95,425 100

Democratic primary edit

Candidates edit

Nominated edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Withdrew edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Nate Boulton (withdrew)
Statewide official
State legislators
Organizations
Cathy Glasson
Elected officials
Iowa Democratic Party officials
  • Jason Frerichs, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus[62]
  • Dylan P. Funk, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member, vice-chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus[62]
  • Mason Fraker, Henry County Democratic Party vice-chairman[62]
  • Nora Taft, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[62]
  • Evan Burger, 4th District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[62]
  • Jessica Fears, 4th District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[62]
  • Holly Herbert, 3rd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[62]
  • Jon Green, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[62]
  • Sarah J. Hinds, Linn County Democratic Party credentials committee chairperson[62]
  • Kate Revaux, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[62]
  • Alex Anderson, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee affirmative action chairperson[62]
  • Lindsey Ellickson, Linn County Democratic Party central committee member[62]
Labor union leaders
  • Chris Laursen, UAW Local 74 president[62]
Labor unions
Organizations
Fred Hubbell
Statewide officials
State legislators
Newspaper
Andy McGuire
John Norris
  • Marti Anderson, state representative
  • Jo Oldson, state representative
  • Brad Anderson, 2014 Democratic Secretary of State nominee
  • Tom Hockensmith, Polk County Supervisor
  • Rod Sullivan, Johnson County Supervisor
  • Travis Weipert, Johnson County Auditor
  • Andrew Wenthe, mayor of Fayette, former state representative
  • Brian Quirk, former state representative
  • Don Ruby, Iowa Democratic Party Secretary
  • Daryll Beal, former state senator
  • Norm Sterzenbach, former executive director, Iowa Democratic Party
  • Roger Thomas, former state representative
  • Marcia Nichols, former political director for AFSCME 61
  • Dave Schroeder, former state representative
Todd Prichard (withdrew)

Polling edit

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Nate
Boulton 		Cathy
Glasson 		Fred
Hubbell 		Andrea
McGuire 		Jon
Neiderbach 		John
Norris 		Ross
Wilburn 		Other Undecided
Selzer & Company May 13–15, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 20% 13% 31% 5% – 5% 3% 10% 14%
Remington May 5–6, 2018 2,315 ± 2.0% 20% 7% 46% 3% – 5% 1% – 18%
20-20 Insight Archived November 15, 2017, at the Wayback Machine November 8–10, 2017 762 ± 3.6% 13% 6% 22% 3% 2% 5% 1% – 47%

Results edit

 
Results by county:
  Hubbell—70–80%
  Hubbell—60–70%
  Hubbell—50–60%
  Hubbell—40–50%
  Hubbell—<40%
  Glasson—<40%
  Norris—60–70%
  Boulton—<40%
Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Fred Hubbell 99,245 55.41
Democratic Cathy Glasson 36,815 20.55
Democratic John Norris 20,498 11.44
Democratic Andy McGuire 9,404 5.25
Democratic Nate Boulton (withdrawn) 9,082 5.07
Democratic Ross Wilburn 3,880 2.17
Democratic Write-ins 200 0.01
Total votes 179,124 100

Libertarian primary edit

Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson received 3.8 percent of the votes in Iowa in 2016, surpassing the 2 percent threshold to attain full political party status.[77] As a result, the Libertarian Party was allowed to hold a primary to select a nominee.[77]

Candidates edit

Nominated edit

  • Jake Porter, business consultant

Declared edit

  • Marco Battaglia, musician[78]
  • Jake Porter, nominee for Secretary of State in 2010 and 2014[79][80][81]

Endorsements edit

Jake Porter
Newspaper

Results edit

Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jake Porter 991 53.92
Libertarian Marco Battaglia 705 38.36
Libertarian Write-ins 142 7.73
Total votes 1,838 100

Independents edit

Candidates edit

Withdrew edit

Endorsements edit

Brent Roske (withdrew)

General election edit

Debates edit

Dates Location Reynolds Hubbell Link
October 17, 2018 Sioux City, Iowa Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 21, 2018 Davenport, Iowa Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[90] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[91] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[92] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[93] Tilt D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[94] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[95] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[96] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[97][a] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[98] Tossup November 5, 2018
Governing[99] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kim
Reynolds (R) 		Fred
Hubbell (D) 		Jake
Porter (L) 		Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 961 – 46% 49% 3% 1%[100] –
Selzer & Company October 30 – November 2, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 44% 46% 2% 1% 7%
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 1,462 ± 2.7% 49% 45% – 2% 5%
University of Iowa October 8–22, 2018 452 – 40% 48% – 5% 6%
Selzer & Company September 17–20, 2018 555 ± 4.2% 41% 43% 7% 0% 9%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 1,000 ± 3.2% 31% 36% – 7% 26%
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 42% 37% – 12% 10%
Hypothetical polling
with Nate Boulton
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kim
Reynolds (R) 		Nate
Boulton (D) 		Other Undecided
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 41% 37% 11% 11%
with Cathy Glasson
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kim
Reynolds (R) 		Cathy
Glasson (D) 		Other Undecided
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 44% 31% 14% 12%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kim
Reynolds (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer) June 19–21, 2017 526 ± 4.3% 44% 39% 17%
with John Norris
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kim
Reynolds (R) 		John
Norris (D) 		Other Undecided
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 41% 30% 14% 15%
with Andy McGuire
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kim
Reynolds (R) 		Andy
McGuire (D) 		Other Undecided
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 42% 30% 15% 13%

Results edit

While pre-election polls showed Reynolds trailing Hubbell,[101] Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote on Election Day, primarily by sweeping every county west of Des Moines and dominating the 4th Congressional District (she lost the other three).[102] Ultimately, she carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties.[103] She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right.[104]

Iowa gubernatorial election, 2018[105]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kim Reynolds (incumbent) 667,275 50.26% -8.73%
Democratic Fred Hubbell 630,986 47.53% +10.26%
Libertarian Jake Porter 21,426 1.61% -0.19%
Independent Gary Siegwarth 7,463 0.56% N/A
Write-in 488 0.04% N/A
Total votes 1,327,638 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

By congressional district edit

Despite losing, Hubbell won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[106]

District Reynolds Hubbell Representative
1st 48.05% 49.31% Abby Finkenauer
2nd 47.29% 50.72% Dave Loebsack
3rd 47.03% 50.94% Cindy Axne
4th 59.33% 38.63% Steve King

See also edit

References edit

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  100. ^ Gary Siegwarth (Clear Water) with 1%
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  102. ^ "Iowa Governor Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis". www.politico.com.
  103. ^ Russell, Joyce (November 7, 2018). "Gov. Reynolds Wins A Full Term In A Close Election". www.iowapublicradio.org.
  104. ^ Ferris, Sarah (November 7, 2018). "Kim Reynolds is Iowa's first elected female governor". Politico.
  105. ^ "General Election 2018 Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
  106. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".

External links edit

Official campaign websites
  • Gary Siegwarth (I) for Governor
  • Fred Hubbell (D) for Governor
  • Jake Porter (L) for Governor
  • Kim Reynolds (R) for Governor

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