2018 Idaho gubernatorial election

Summary

The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term,[1] and the state's primaries were held on May 15.[2]

2018 Idaho gubernatorial election

← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
 
Nominee Brad Little Paulette Jordan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 361,661 231,081
Percentage 59.76% 38.19%

Little:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Jordan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election

Butch Otter
Republican

Elected Governor

Brad Little
Republican

Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from Northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970.[3]

Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.

A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 (439,830 votes). The previous high was 452,535 votes in 2010.

Republican primary edit

Incumbent governor Butch Otter chose not to run for reelection for a fourth term in office.[1]

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Withdrew edit

Declined edit

Campaign edit

Lieutenant Governor Brad Little indicated in June 2016 that he would run for Governor, a decision described as "early" by the Idaho Statesman.[14] Little was characterized as a politician favored by members of the party establishment, including Otter and U.S. Senator Jim Risch.[15]

Representative Raúl Labrador chose to forgo reelection in the 1st district in favor of a gubernatorial candidacy. Labrador, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, was considered the most conservative candidate in the primary.[16] As a candidate, Labrador suggested that he would be open to overruling Medicaid expansion in the event the state's 2018 ballot measure on the issue passed.[17]

Physician and Boise-area property developer Tommy Ahlquist, a first time candidate, touted his non-political background and pledged to cut regulations to encourage growth.[18] Ahlquist notably received the support of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.[19]

Endorsements edit

Tommy Ahlquist
U.S. Governors (current and former)
Republican National Committee members
Mayors
Individuals
Celebrities
Raúl Labrador
U.S. Senators
State legislators (current and former)
Individuals
Political Action Committees
  • Protect Freedom PAC [26]
Trade Associations
  • Inland Pacific Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors (IPC-ABC) [32]
Organizations
  • Idaho Chooses Life[33]
  • Family Policy Alliance of Idaho[34]
Brad Little
U.S. Governors (current and former)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials (current and former)
State legislators (current and former)
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tommy
Ahlquist
Raul
Labrador
Brad
Little
Lisa
Marie
Lawrence
Wasden*
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates February 26 – March 15, 2018 21% 25% 17% 6% 31%
Dan Jones & Associates November 8–15, 2017 619 ± 3.9% 14% 17% 21% 4% 4% 5% 36%
Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) Archived December 1, 2017, at the Wayback Machine October 11–12, 2017 714 ± 3.7% 21% 37% 23% 19%

*–Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.

Results edit

Little ultimately won the primary with 37.3% of the vote, with Labrador taking 32.6% and Ahlquist taking 26.2%. Little's campaign performed best in Boise metropolitan area and agrarian communities in the southwestern part of the state. Labrador performed best in areas in the 1st congressional district, located in the northern part of the state. Ahlquist, a Mormon, saw a better performance in eastern counties, which has a notable Latter Day Saint (LDS) presence.[55]

 
Results by county:
Little
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Labrador
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Ahlquist
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brad Little 72,518 37.3
Republican Raúl Labrador 63,460 32.6
Republican Tommy Ahlquist 50,977 26.2
Republican Lisa Marie 3,390 1.7
Republican Steve Pankey 2,701 1.4
Republican Harley Brown 874 0.4
Republican Dalton Cannady 528 0.3
Total votes 194,448 100.0

Democratic primary edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

A. J. Balukoff
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Statewide officials (current and former)
State legislators (current and former)
Democratic National Committee officials (current and former)
Local and municipal officials (current and former)
Newspapers
Organizations
Paulette Jordan
State legislators (current and former)
Individuals
Organizations

Results edit

 
Results by county:
Jordan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Jordan/Balukoff tie
  •   40–50%
Balukoff
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Paulette Jordan 38,483 58.4
Democratic A.J. Balukoff 26,403 40.1
Democratic Peter Dill 964 1.5
Total votes 65,850 100.0

Independents edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

  • Adam Phillips[9]
  • Michael Richardson[5]
  • John Thomas Wiechec[9]

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[86] Safe R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[87] Safe R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[88] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[89] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[90] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[91] Safe R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[92] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[93][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[94] Safe R November 5, 2018
Governing[95] Safe R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates edit

Dates Location Little Jordan Link
October 15, 2018 Boise, Idaho Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Brad
Little (R)
Paulette
Jordan (D)
Bev
Boeck (L)
Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 838 55% 39% 3% 2%[96]
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) August 2–5, 2018 826 ± 3.2% 36% 28% 5% 31%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) July 12–15, 2018 1,061 ± 2.8% 38% 28% 7% 26%
Dan Jones & Associates Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 22 – July 9, 2018 606 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 5% 8%[97] 13%

Results edit

Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Brad Little 361,661 59.76% +6.24%
Democratic Paulette Jordan 231,081 38.19% -0.36%
Libertarian Bev "Angel" Boeck 6,551 1.08% -2.99%
Constitution Walter L. Bayes 5,787 0.96% -0.23%
Independent Lisa Marie (write-in) 51 0.0% N/A
Total votes 605,131 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

See also edit

References edit

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  2. ^ Legislatures, National Conference of State. "2018 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  3. ^ Richert, Kevin (April 23, 2018). "Democratic Candidates Split on Marijuana Legalization". Idaho Ed News. Retrieved February 14, 2019.
  4. ^ Dentzer, Kevin (February 28, 2017). "Ahlquist makes it official: In campaign for governor, he starts 97-town tour this week". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved March 1, 2017.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Russell, Betsy Z. (March 10, 2018). "Candidates flock to file for Idaho's May primary election". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved March 31, 2018.
  6. ^ Russell, Betsy Z. (May 9, 2017). "Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador files to run for governor in 2018". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
  7. ^ Richert, Kevin (October 26, 2017). "Christy Perry considers run for Congress". Idaho Education News. Retrieved October 30, 2017.
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  10. ^ Berg, Sven (August 24, 2016). "Fulcher announces he'll run for governor again in 2018". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
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  12. ^ Spence, William L. (February 6, 2016). "Lori Otter says she doesn't plan to seek office". Lewiston Morning Tribune. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
  13. ^ Russell, Betsy Z. "Wasden to seek another term as Attorney General, not join crowds running for governor, Congress". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  14. ^ Dentzer, Bill (June 29, 2016). "Brad Little, Idaho's governor-in-waiting, commits to 2018 run". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
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  16. ^ Golshan, Tara (May 14, 2018). "The super-expensive, heated governor's race you aren't paying attention to". Vox. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
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  18. ^ Moudy, Shannon (September 5, 2017). "Businessman Tommy Ahlquist says Non-Political Background Helps in Governor Race". KLEW. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  19. ^ "Mitt Romney endorses Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho governor". AP News. October 25, 2017. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  20. ^ Kruesi, Kimberlee (October 25, 2017). "Mitt Romney Endorses Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho Governor". USNews.com. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
  21. ^ Russell, Betsy Z. (September 19, 2017). "Ahlquist names Damond Watkins as campaign chairman". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
  22. ^ "Meridian mayor named co-chairwoman for Ahlquist campaign". Meridian Press. September 19, 2017. Archived from the original on September 7, 2017. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
  23. ^ "Gubernatorial Candidate Dr. Tommy Ahlquist Announces Campaign County Chairs 107 Business, Community & Conservative Leaders Join Campaign Team - Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho". Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho. September 14, 2017. Archived from the original on September 14, 2017. Retrieved September 19, 2017.
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  25. ^ Price, Mike (September 26, 2017). "Olympic gold medalist visits Idaho Falls to campaign for Ahlquist". East Idaho News.
  26. ^ a b Kruesi, Kimberlee (November 1, 2017). "Labrador Attracts Endorsements in Idaho's Gubernatorial Race". U.S. News & World Report. Associated Press.
  27. ^ Russell, Betsy Z. (November 1, 2017). "Labrador announces Ted Cruz is endorsing him for governor of Idaho in '18". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved November 2, 2017.
  28. ^ "Conservative Legislators Endorsement". Labrador for Governor. May 1, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  29. ^ "Former Rep. Ken Andrus Backs Raul Labrador". Labrador for Governor. May 9, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  30. ^ "Labrador wins variety of endorsements". Idaho Politics Weekly. May 6, 2018.
  31. ^ "Labrador Releases Heller Endorsement and 200 Member Coalition". Labrador for Governor. April 20, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  32. ^ "IPC-ABC Endorses Raul Labrador for Idaho Governor". Archived from the original on June 26, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  33. ^ "Idaho Chooses Life Endorses Labradorfor Governor". Labrador for Governor. April 26, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  34. ^ "BREAKING: Family Policy Alliance of Idaho Endorses…". Family Policy Alliance of Idaho. May 10, 2018.
  35. ^ "Otter Endorses Little in Idaho Governor's Race". U.S. News & World Report. Associated Press. May 16, 2017. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
  36. ^ "Brad Little should be the next governor of Idaho". Idaho State Journal. April 24, 2018. Retrieved May 5, 2018.
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  42. ^ "Primary election endorsements". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  43. ^ a b "Brad Little, A.J. Balukoff are best choices for governor". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
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  45. ^ "Pragmatic and responsible, Brad Little is ready to lead Idaho". Idaho Statesman. October 21, 2018.
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  52. ^ "Idaho Grain Producers Put Their Support Behind Brad Little". Brad Little for Governor.
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  54. ^ "Small Business PAC Endorses Little for Governor". NFIB. September 10, 2018.
  55. ^ "'Not Pure Enough': An Ultra-Conservative State Nominates a Pragmatist for Governor". Governing. May 16, 2018. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  56. ^ Kruesi, Kimberlee (November 2, 2017). "Idaho Democrat announces another run for governor". KTVB. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
  57. ^ Russell, Betsy Z. (December 7, 2017). "Rep. Paulette Jordan announces she'll run for governor as a Democrat". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
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  82. ^ Locher, John (January 24, 2018). "Cher endorses Paulette Jordan for Idaho governor". Moscow-Pullman Daily News. Retrieved February 20, 2018.
  83. ^ a b c "Who's With Paulette? - Jordan for Governor". Retrieved August 10, 2021.
  84. ^ Kruesi, Kimberley (March 15, 2018). "Democratic Governor Candidates Begin Collecting Endorsements". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  85. ^ "Paulette Jordan". Our Revolution. Archived from the original on May 15, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  86. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  87. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  88. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  89. ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  90. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  91. ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  92. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  93. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. October 10, 2021.
  94. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  95. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  96. ^ Walter Bayes with 2%
  97. ^ Walter Bayes (C) with 3%, someone else with 5%

External links edit

Debates
  • GOP Debate
Official campaign websites
  • Paulette Jordan (D) for Governor
  • Brad Little (R) for Governor