2016 United States presidential election in Michigan

Summary

The 2016 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Michigan has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2016 United States presidential election in Michigan

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout63%Steady[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 16 0
Popular vote 2,279,543 2,268,839
Percentage 47.50% 47.27%

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color[2]
Treemap of the popular vote by county

In the general election, Trump unexpectedly won Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23%, with 47.50% of the total votes over Clinton's 47.27%. This is the narrowest margin of victory in Michigan's history in presidential elections, as well as the narrowest margin of any state in the 2016 election. All of Michigan's 16 Electoral College votes were thus assigned to Trump. Trump's victory in Michigan was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class citizens, a demographic group that had previously tended to either vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all.[4] By winning Michigan, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Michigan also became one of eleven states to vote for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost.

Michigan's largest county, Wayne County, home to Detroit, voted for Clinton by 37 points. She also managed to hold on to suburban Oakland County, the state's second-largest county, where residents tend to be more diverse and more white-collar, where instead third-party candidates gained votes, whilst Trump flipped the state's third largest county, Macomb County, which is home to more socially conservative but economically populist white blue-collar workers. As of 2020, this is the most recent election where Michigan voted to the right of Nevada.

Primary elections edit

Democratic primary edit

 
Democratic primary results by county.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. On the same day, the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was one of the largest upsets in American political history, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.

Results edit

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[5]

Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 598,943 49.68% 67 0 67
Hillary Clinton 581,775 48.26% 63 10 73
Uncommitted 21,601 1.79% 0 7 7
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 2,363 0.20%
Rocky De La Fuente 870 0.07%
Total 1,205,552 100% 130 17 147
Source: The Green Papers

Republican primary edit

Four candidates participated in the Republican primary.[6]

2016 Michigan Republican presidential primary
 
← 2012 March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08) 2020 →
       
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich
Home state New York Texas Ohio
Delegate count 25 17 17
Popular vote 483,753 326,617 321,115
Percentage 36.55% 24.68% 24.26%

   
Candidate Marco Rubio
Home state Florida
Delegate count 0
Popular vote 123,587
Percentage 9.34%

 
 

Debate edit

Detroit, March 3

Candidate Airtime[7] Polls[8]
Trump 26:40 35.6%
Cruz 19:23 19.8%
Rubio 13:32 17.4%
Kasich 15:20 8.8%

The eleventh debate was held on March 3, 2016, at the Fox Theatre in downtown Detroit, Michigan.[9] It was the third debate to air on Fox News Channel.[10] Special Report anchor Bret Baier, The Kelly File anchor Megyn Kelly and Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace served as moderators.[11] It led into the Maine, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii contests. Fox announced that in order for candidates to qualify, they must have at least 3 percent support in the five most recent national polls by March 1 at 5 pm.[12] Ben Carson said on March 2 he would not be attending the debate.[13][14]

Results edit

Thirteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[5]

Michigan Republican primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 483,753 36.55% 25 0 25
Ted Cruz 326,617 24.68% 17 0 17
John Kasich 321,115 24.26% 17 0 17
Marco Rubio 123,587 9.34% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 21,349 1.61% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 22,824 1.72% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 10,685 0.81% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 3,774 0.29% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 3,116 0.24% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 2,603 0.20% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 1,722 0.13% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,415 0.11% 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 591 0.04% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 438 0.03% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,323,589 100.00% 59 0 59
Source: The Green Papers

General election edit

Although won by Democratic candidates in every election since 1992, sometimes by decisive margins, in 2016 Michigan was considered a swing state and received much attention from Republican party candidate Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton's campaign was confident they would win the state, and projected a 5-point win up until election day.[15] Trump was able to win the state for the first time since George H. W. Bush won it in 1988,[16] albeit by a narrow 0.23% margin of victory. On Election Day, Detroit Free Press had prematurely called the state for Clinton at 9:15pm before retracting the call three hours later,[17] an error which had been common in many sources at the 2000 election, in the states of Florida and New Mexico. Donald Trump's upset victory highlighted Michigan's new status as a swing state, being bitterly contested in the 2020 election, when former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden narrowly flipped it back into the Democratic column. Trump's State Campaign was run by Scott Hagerstrom (State Director), CJ Galdes (Deputy State Director), Christopher Morris (Field Director), and Tia Jurkiw (Events Coordinator).[18][19]

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[20] Likely D November 6, 2016
CNN[21] Lean D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[22] Lean D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[23] Lean D November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[24] Tossup November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[25] Lean D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Lean D November 7, 2016
Fox News[27] Lean D November 7, 2016

Polling edit

Except for losing one poll in August 2015, and tying with Trump in a poll in September 2015, Clinton won every pre-election poll with margins between 4 and 12 points until November 2016. In late October 2016, Clinton's lead narrowed significantly towards the election. Trump also won the last poll conducted on election day 49% to 47%.[28] The average of the last three polls had Clinton leading Trump 47.6% to 45%.[29] Ultimately, Trump's win here was an extreme surprise.

Minor candidates edit

The following were given write-in status:[30]

Results edit

2016 United States presidential election in Michigan
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 2,279,543 47.50% 16
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 2,268,869 47.27% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 172,136 3.59% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 51,463 1.07% 0
U.S. Taxpayers' Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 16,139 0.34% 0
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) - 8,183 0.17% 0
Natural Law Mimi Soltysik Angela Nicole Walker 2,209 0.05% 0
- Others - 772 0.02% 0
Totals 4,799,284 100.00% 16

Results by county edit

County Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Alcona 4,201 67.78% 1,732 27.94% 265 4.28% 2,469 39.84% 6,198
Alger 2,585 57.22% 1,663 36.81% 270 5.97% 922 20.41% 4,518
Allegan 34,183 60.91% 18,050 32.16% 3,887 6.93% 16,133 28.75% 56,120
Alpena 9,090 61.55% 4,877 33.02% 801 5.43% 4,213 28.53% 14,768
Antrim 8,469 61.97% 4,448 32.55% 750 5.48% 4,021 29.42% 13,667
Arenac 4,950 64.04% 2,384 30.84% 395 5.12% 2,566 33.20% 7,729
Baraga 2,158 61.34% 1,156 32.86% 204 5.80% 1,002 28.48% 3,518
Barry 19,202 62.92% 9,114 29.87% 2,201 7.21% 10,088 33.05% 30,517
Bay 28,328 53.17% 21,642 40.62% 3,304 6.21% 6,686 12.55% 53,274
Benzie 5,539 54.16% 4,108 40.16% 581 5.68% 1,431 14.00% 10,228
Berrien 38,647 53.65% 29,495 40.95% 3,889 5.40% 9,152 12.70% 72,031
Branch 11,786 66.73% 5,061 28.65% 816 4.62% 6,725 38.08% 17,663
Calhoun 31,494 53.47% 24,157 41.01% 3,251 5.52% 7,337 12.46% 58,902
Cass 14,243 63.04% 7,270 32.18% 1,082 4.78% 6,973 30.86% 22,595
Charlevoix 8,674 59.19% 5,137 35.06% 843 5.75% 3,537 24.13% 14,654
Cheboygan 8,683 63.51% 4,302 31.47% 687 5.02% 4,381 32.04% 13,672
Chippewa 9,122 58.65% 5,379 34.59% 1,051 6.76% 3,743 24.06% 15,552
Clare 8,505 63.24% 4,249 31.59% 695 5.17% 4,256 31.65% 13,449
Clinton 21,636 52.85% 16,492 40.29% 2,809 6.86% 5,144 12.56% 40,937
Crawford 4,354 63.62% 2,110 30.83% 380 5.55% 2,244 32.79% 6,844
Delta 11,121 59.81% 6,436 34.61% 1,037 5.58% 4,685 25.20% 18,594
Dickinson 8,580 64.84% 3,923 29.65% 729 5.51% 4,657 35.19% 13,232
Eaton 27,609 48.80% 24,938 44.08% 4,028 7.12% 2,671 4.72% 56,575
Emmet 10,616 55.89% 6,972 36.71% 1,406 7.40% 3,644 19.18% 18,994
Genesee 84,175 42.59% 102,751 51.99% 10,715 5.42% -18,576 -9.40% 197,641
Gladwin 8,124 64.77% 3,794 30.25% 624 4.98% 4,330 34.52% 12,542
Gogebic 4,018 54.42% 2,925 39.62% 440 5.96% 1,093 14.80% 7,383
Grand Traverse 27,413 52.73% 20,965 40.33% 3,607 6.94% 6,448 12.40% 51,985
Gratiot 9,880 60.01% 5,666 34.41% 919 5.58% 4,214 25.60% 16,465
Hillsdale 14,095 70.69% 4,799 24.07% 1,046 5.24% 9,296 46.62% 19,940
Houghton 8,475 53.77% 6,018 38.18% 1,268 8.05% 2,457 15.59% 15,761
Huron 10,692 67.06% 4,579 28.72% 673 4.22% 6,113 38.34% 15,944
Ingham 43,868 33.20% 79,110 59.87% 9,157 6.93% -35,242 -26.67% 132,135
Ionia 16,635 61.52% 8,352 30.89% 2,052 7.59% 8,283 30.63% 27,039
Iosco 8,345 62.14% 4,345 32.36% 739 5.50% 4,000 29.78% 13,429
Iron 3,675 61.66% 2,004 33.62% 281 4.72% 2,671 28.04% 5,960
Isabella 12,338 48.31% 11,404 44.65% 1,798 7.04% 934 3.66% 25,540
Jackson 39,793 56.75% 25,795 36.78% 4,537 6.47% 13,998 19.97% 70,125
Kalamazoo 51,034 40.41% 67,148 53.17% 8,117 6.42% -16,114 -12.76% 126,299
Kalkaska 6,116 69.24% 2,280 25.81% 437 4.95% 3,836 43.43% 8,833
Kent 148,180 47.66% 138,683 44.61% 24,031 7.73% 9,497 3.05% 310,894
Keweenaw 814 56.76% 527 36.75% 93 6.49% 287 20.01% 1,434
Lake 3,159 58.96% 1,939 36.19% 260 4.85% 1,220 22.77% 5,358
Lapeer 30,037 66.48% 12,734 28.18% 2,412 5.34% 17,303 38.30% 45,183
Leelanau 7,239 48.61% 6,774 45.49% 879 5.90% 465 3.12% 14,892
Lenawee 26,430 57.09% 16,750 36.18% 3,118 6.73% 9,680 20.91% 46,298
Livingston 65,680 61.68% 34,384 32.29% 6,425 6.03% 31,296 29.39% 106,489
Luce 1,756 67.77% 681 26.28% 154 5.95% 1,075 41.49% 2,591
Mackinac 3,744 60.94% 2,085 33.94% 315 5.12% 1,659 27.00% 6,144
Macomb 224,665 53.58% 176,317 42.05% 18,330 4.37% 48,348 11.53% 419,312
Manistee 6,915 54.62% 4,979 39.33% 766 6.05% 1,936 15.29% 12,660
Marquette 14,646 44.09% 16,042 48.29% 2,530 7.62% -1,396 -4.20% 33,218
Mason 8,505 57.50% 5,281 35.70% 1,006 6.80% 3,224 21.80% 14,792
Mecosta 10,305 59.71% 5,827 33.76% 1,127 6.53% 4,478 25.95% 17,259
Menominee 6,702 61.92% 3,539 32.70% 583 5.38% 3,163 29.22% 10,824
Midland 23,846 55.75% 15,635 36.55% 3,295 7.70% 8,211 19.20% 42,776
Missaukee 5,386 73.61% 1,565 21.39% 366 5.00% 3,821 52.22% 7,317
Monroe 43,261 57.95% 26,863 35.98% 4,531 6.07% 16,398 21.97% 74,655
Montcalm 16,907 63.18% 7,874 29.42% 1,979 7.40% 9,033 33.76% 26,760
Montmorency 3,498 69.52% 1,287 25.58% 247 4.90% 2,211 43.94% 5,032
Muskegon 36,127 45.89% 37,304 47.39% 5,292 6.72% -1,177 -1.50% 78,723
Newaygo 15,173 66.60% 6,212 27.27% 1,397 6.13% 8,961 39.33% 22,782
Oakland 289,203 43.23% 343,070 51.29% 36,652 5.48% -53,867 -8.06% 668,925
Oceana 7,228 60.59% 3,973 33.30% 729 6.11% 3,255 27.29% 11,930
Ogemaw 6,827 65.39% 3,030 29.02% 583 5.59% 3,797 36.37% 10,440
Ontonagon 2,066 60.18% 1,176 34.26% 191 5.56% 890 25.92% 3,433
Osceola 7,336 69.15% 2,705 25.50% 568 5.35% 4,631 43.65% 10,609
Oscoda 2,843 69.48% 1,044 25.51% 205 5.01% 1,799 43.97% 4,092
Otsego 8,266 65.55% 3,556 28.20% 788 6.25% 4,710 37.35% 12,610
Ottawa 88,467 61.50% 44,973 31.26% 10,408 7.24% 43,494 30.24% 143,848
Presque Isle 4,488 61.84% 2,400 33.07% 369 5.09% 2,088 28.77% 7,257
Roscommon 8,141 62.16% 4,287 32.74% 668 5.10% 3,854 29.42% 13,096
Saginaw 45,469 47.97% 44,396 46.84% 4,915 5.19% 1,073 1.13% 94,780
Sanilac 13,446 69.85% 4,873 25.32% 930 4.83% 8,573 44.53% 19,249
Schoolcraft 2,556 61.19% 1,369 32.77% 252 6.04% 1,187 28.42% 4,177
Shiawassee 19,230 56.37% 12,546 36.78% 2,335 6.85% 6,684 19.59% 34,111
St. Clair 49,051 62.88% 24,553 31.48% 4,399 5.64% 24,498 31.40% 78,003
St. Joseph 14,884 62.10% 7,526 31.40% 1,557 6.50% 7,358 30.70% 23,967
Tuscola 17,102 65.96% 7,429 28.65% 1,397 5.39% 9,673 37.31% 25,928
Van Buren 17,890 53.77% 13,258 39.84% 2,126 6.39% 4,632 13.93% 33,274
Washtenaw 50,631 26.64% 128,483 67.59% 10,965 5.77% -77,852 -40.95% 190,079
Wayne 228,993 29.26% 519,444 66.36% 34,282 4.38% -290,451 -37.10% 782,719
Wexford 10,000 65.06% 4,436 28.86% 934 6.08% 5,564 36.20% 15,370
Totals 2,279,543 47.25% 2,268,839 47.03% 276,160 5.72% 10,704 0.22% 4,824,542
 
 
 

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

[31]

By congressional district edit

Trump won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[32]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 58% 37% Dan Benishek
Jack Bergman
2nd 55% 38% Bill Huizenga
3rd 52% 42% Justin Amash
4th 59% 35% John Moolenaar
5th 45% 50% Dan Kildee
6th 51% 43% Fred Upton
7th 56% 39% Tim Walberg
8th 51% 44% Mike Bishop
9th 44% 51% Sander Levin
10th 64% 32% Candice Miller
Paul Mitchell
11th 49% 45% David Trott
12th 34% 61% Debbie Dingell
13th 18% 79% John Conyers Jr.
14th 18% 79% Brenda Lawrence

Recount edit

The Michigan Board of Canvassers certified Trump's lead of 10,704 votes over Clinton, a 0.23% margin, on November 28.[33] The deadline to request a recount was then set for November 30 at 2:00 p.m. That same day, Green Party candidate Jill Stein's campaign requested a hand recount, but the recount was halted December 1 after the state received an objection from Trump representatives.[34] The objection was rejected by Michigan's Bureau of Elections on December 2, and a federal judge ordered the recount to start again on December 5.[34] Finally, the recount was halted on December 7 after a federal judge issued an order to Michigan's Board of Elections, thus making Trump's win official.[35]

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ "SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics". Michigan.gov.
  2. ^ Michigan Election Results, Michigan Secretary of State, November 28, 2016
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  4. ^ Cohn, Nate (November 9, 2016). "Why Trump Won: Working-Class". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
  5. ^ a b "Michigan Secretary of State: March 2016 Primary Information". Michigan.gov.
  6. ^ "Mitt Romney, Donald Trump Share Harsh Words In Competing Speeches". Npr.org.
  7. ^ Sprunt, Barbara (March 3, 2016). "On The Clock: Trump Still Gets The Most Talking Time". NPR. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  8. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination".
  9. ^ Gold, Hadas (February 4, 2016). "Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, Chris Wallace return for March 3 debate". Politico. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  10. ^ "2016 presidential debate schedule: Dates, times, moderators and topics". Politico.com. Retrieved January 19, 2016.
  11. ^ "GOP debate headed to Detroit in March". Detroit News. February 4, 2016.
  12. ^ Feldman, Josh. "Fox News Announces Criteria for Next Week's Big GOP Debate". Mediaite.com. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
  13. ^ "Transcript of the Republican Presidential Debate in Detroit". The New York Times. March 3, 2016. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  14. ^ "Republican debate: candidates pledge to support Trump if needed – as it happened". Guardian. March 3, 2016. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  15. ^ How Clinton lost Michigan — and blew the election. Politico. 14 December 2016.
  16. ^ Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  17. ^ "Free Press Embarrasses Itself with a Premature Call of Clinton Win in Michigan". Deadlinedetroit.com.
  18. ^ "Donald J. Trump for President Campaign Organization 2016 General Election - Michigan". www.p2016.org. Retrieved October 1, 2020.
  19. ^ "Forest Hills grad lands big role in national presidential campaign". mlive. September 19, 2016. Retrieved October 1, 2020.
  20. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  21. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  22. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  23. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  24. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  25. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  26. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  27. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  28. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton".
  29. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton".
  30. ^ "Michigan Bureau of Elections : SUBJECT: Write-in Candidates for November 8, 2016 General Election: FINAL LISTING" (PDF). Jalp5dai.files.wordpress.com. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  31. ^ "Trump flipped 12 counties to win Michigan". Detroit News.
  32. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  33. ^ Gray, Kathleen; Egan, Paul (November 28, 2016). "Board of Canvassers certifies Trump victory in Michigan". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  34. ^ a b Keneally, Meghan (December 9, 2016). "Everything you need to know about the election recount efforts". ABC News. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
  35. ^ "The Latest: Federal judge agrees to end Michigan recount". Associated Press. December 7, 2016. Retrieved February 24, 2020.

Further reading edit

  • David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 9, 2020), "The six political states of Michigan", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on August 10, 2020

External links edit

  • 2016 Michigan Election Results
  • RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  • Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions