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2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota 
Summary
The 2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the single U.S. Representative from South Dakota's At-large congressional district, comprising the entire state of South Dakota. The election coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.
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 County results Noem: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Varilek: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Republican primary edit
Candidates edit
Nominee edit
- Kristi Noem, incumbent U.S. Representative[1]
Democratic primary edit
Candidates edit
Nominee edit
- Matt Varilek, staffer for Senator Tim Johnson[2]
Eliminated in primary edit
- Jeff Barth, Minnehaha County Commissioner[1]
Declined edit
- Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, former U.S. Representative[3]
Primary results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Matt Varilek | 21,759 | 71.9 | |
| Democratic | Jeff Barth | 8,494 | 28.1 | |
| Total votes | 30,253 | 100.0 | ||
General election edit
Polling edit
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kristi Noem (R) |
Matt Varilek (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling | October 31 – November 4, 2012 | 633 | ± 3.90% | 54% | 41% | 5% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | October 28–31, 2012 | 671 | ± 3.78% | 50% | 44% | 5% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | August 29 – September 6, 2012 | 509 | ± 4.34% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | July 19–23, 2012 | 541 | ± 4.21% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kristi Noem (R) |
Stephanie H. Sandlin (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 28–30, 2011 | 1,045 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 8% |
Endorsements edit
Matt Varilek (D)
- Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Emerging Races" Program[5]
Predictions edit
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[6] | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg[7] | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call[8] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times[10] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP[11] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill[12] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kristi Noem (incumbent) | 207,640 | 57.45% | +9.33% | |
| Democratic | Matt Varilek | 153,789 | 42.55% | -3.34% | |
| Total votes | '361,429' | '100.0%' | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit
- Beadle (Largest city: Huron)
- Bon Homme (Largest city: Springfield)
- Brule (Largest city: Chamberlain)
- Corson (Largest city: McLaughlin)
- Deuel (Largest city: Clear Lake)
- Grant (Largest city: Milbank)
- Jerauld (Largest city: Wessington Springs)
- Kingsbury (Largest city: De Smet)
- Lake (Largest city: Madison)
- Miner (Largest city: Howard)
- Minnehaha (Largest city: Sioux Falls)
- Moody (Largest city: Flandreau)
- Sanborn (Largest city: Woonsocket)
- Brookings (largest city: Brookings)
- Aurora (largest city: Plankinton)
- Bennett (largest city: Martin)
- Clark (largest city: Clark)
- Spink (largest city: Redfield)
- Mellette (Largest city: White River)
References edit
- ^ a b Luther, Megan (July 16, 2011). "Rep. Noem gears up for re-election campaign". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 20, 2011.
- ^ Hayworth, Bret (December 2, 2011). "Politically Speaking: Varilek enters race for South Dakota congressional seat". Sioux City Journal. Retrieved December 2, 2011.
- ^ "Stephanie Herseth Sandlin officially announces she will not run for office in 2012". Argus Leader. January 21, 2011. Retrieved January 29, 2011.
- ^ "Statewide Races". Secretary of State of South Dakota. June 25, 2012. Retrieved August 3, 2012.
- ^ "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
- ^ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
- ^ "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
- ^ [1], as of November 4, 2012[update]
- ^ Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012[update]
- ^ House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012[update]
- ^ [2], as of November 4, 2012[update]
- ^ "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
- ^ "Secretary of State — Statewide Races" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved November 28, 2012.
External links edit
- Elections from the South Dakota Secretary of State
- United States House of Representatives elections in South Dakota, 2012 at Ballotpedia
- South Dakota - At-Large from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
- Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Kristi Noem campaign website
- Matt Varilek campaign website