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2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election 
Summary
The 2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, U.S. House elections, and various state and local elections.
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Hassan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Lamontagne: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Four-term incumbent governor John Lynch was eligible to seek a fifth term. In the fall of 2011, Lynch announced that he would retire rather than run for re-election.[1] On September 11, 2012, Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne defeated primary opponents to win their parties' nominations.[2][3] Hassan won the election while carrying every county in the state and began the two-year term on January 3, 2013.[4]
Democratic primary edit
Candidates edit
- Jackie Cilley, former state Senator[5]
- Maggie Hassan, former majority leader of the New Hampshire Senate[6]
- Bill Kennedy, firefighter and retired Air Force officer[7][8]
Declined edit
- Mark Connolly, former director of the New Hampshire's Bureau of Securities Regulation[9]
- Tom Ferrini, mayor of Portsmouth[1]
- Gary Hirshberg, chairman and former CEO of Stonyfield Farm[10]
- John Lynch, incumbent governor[1]
- Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth[11]
- Phil McLaughlin, former state Attorney General[12]
- Terry Shumaker, lawyer and former United States Ambassador to Trinidad and Tobago[13]
Polling edit
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley |
Maggie Hassan |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | August 9–12, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 24% | 30% | — | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 10–13, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.5% | 20% | 23% | — | 57% |
Results edit
Hassan—60–70%
Hassan—50–60%
Hassan—40–50%
Cilley—50–60%
Cilley—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maggie Hassan | 45,120 | 53.1 | |
| Democratic | Jackie Cilley | 33,066 | 38.9 | |
| Democratic | Bill Kennedy | 5,936 | 7.0 | |
| Democratic | Other | 850 | 1.0 | |
| Total votes | 84,972 | 100 | ||
Republican primary edit
Candidates edit
- Ovide M. Lamontagne, attorney, 1992 congressional candidate, nominee for governor in 1996 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[15]
- Kevin H. Smith, conservative activist and former state Representative[16]
- Robert Tarr[17]
Declined edit
- Bill Binnie, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[18]
- Jeb Bradley, New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader and former U.S. Representative[19]
- Peter Bragdon, state Senate President[20]
- Ted Gatsas, Mayor of Manchester[21]
- Steve Kenda, businessman[22]
- John Lyons, chairman of the New Hampshire Board of Education[23]
- John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner and Republican nominee for governor in 2010[24]
Polling edit
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ovide Lamontagne |
Kevin Smith |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | August 9–12, 2012 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 21% | — | 30% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 10–13, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 13% | — | 34% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 7–8, 2012 | 1,771 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 12% | — | 48% |
Results edit
Lamontagne—80–90%
Lamontagne—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ovide Lamontagne | 73,437 | 67.7 | |
| Republican | Kevin Smith | 32,396 | 29.8 | |
| Republican | Robert Tarr | 1,725 | 1.6 | |
| Republican | Other | 988 | 0.9 | |
| Total votes | 108,546 | 100 | ||
General election edit
Candidates edit
- John Babiarz (Libertarian), businessman and party nominee for governor in 2000, 2002, and 2010[26]
- Maggie Hassan (D), former majority leader of the New Hampshire Senate
- Ovide Lamontagne (R), attorney, Republican nominee for governor in 1996, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
Debates edit
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 14, 2012
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 8, 2012
Predictions edit
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[27] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[29] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling edit
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | November 4, 2012 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 45% | 1% | 4% |
| New England College | November 3–4, 2012 | 666 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 45% | 1% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 3–4, 2012 | 1,550 | ± 2.5% | 51% | 47% | — | 2% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | November 1–4, 2012 | 789 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 43% | 3% | — |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | October 31–November 2, 2012 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 42% | 3% | 8% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | October 28–29, 2012 | 1013 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 44% | 1% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 26–28, 2012 | 874 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | — | 8% |
| New England College | October 23–25, 2012 | 571 | ± 4.1% | 45% | 45% | 1% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 23, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 48% | 1% | 5% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | October 17–21, 2012 | 773 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 35% | 3% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 17–19, 2012 | 1,036 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 15, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 48% | — | 5% |
| Suffolk University/7NEWS Archived 2012-10-17 at the Wayback Machine | October 12–14, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 38% | 4% | 16% |
| American Research Group | October 9–11, 2012 | 600 | ± 4% | 40% | 46% | 3% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 9, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 46% | — | 5% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | October 1–6, 2012 | 419 | ± 4.8% | 35% | 39% | 3% | 23% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | September 27–30, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 38% | 36% | 2% | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 24–25, 2012 | 862 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 44% | — | 5% |
| NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College | September 23–25, 2012 | 1012 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 1% | 7% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Archived 2012-09-27 at the Wayback Machine | September 15–19, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 18, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 48% | 2% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 9–12, 2012 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 31% | 33% | 1% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 10–13, 2012 | 1,163 | ± 2.9% | 39% | 40% | — | 21% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | April 9–20, 2012 | 486 | ± 4.4% | 34% | 29% | 1% | 36% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | January 25–February 2, 2012 | 495 | ± 4.4% | 26% | 32% | 1% | 41% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 30–July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 41% | — | 24% |
Hypothetical polling
- With Cilley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | August 9–12, 2012 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 31% | 35% | 1% | 33% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 41% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 10–13, 2012 | 1,163 | ± 2.9% | 38% | 38% | — | 24% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | April 9–20, 2012 | 486 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 30% | 1% | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley (D) |
Kevin Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | August 9–12, 2012 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 39% | 38% | — | 23% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 31% | 28% | 1% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 37% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 10–13, 2012 | 1,163 | ± 2.9% | 37% | 32% | — | 31% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | April 9–20, 2012 | 486 | ± 4.4% | 30% | 23% | 1% | 47% |
- With Smith
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Kevin Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | August 9–12, 2012 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 39% | — | 20% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 31% | 29% | 1% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 39% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 10–13, 2012 | 1,163 | ± 2.9% | 37% | 31% | — | 32% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | April 9–20, 2012 | 486 | ± 4.4% | 29% | 24% | 1% | 46% |
- With Kennedy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Kennedy (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 29% | 35% | 1% | 36% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Kennedy (D) |
Kevin Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | August 1–12, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 27% | 29% | 1% | 44% |
- With Bradley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 30% | 38% | — | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 33% | 39% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Marchand (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 32% | 38% | — | 31% |
- With Connolly
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 34% | 40% | — | 26% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 36% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
John E. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 44% | — | 20% |
- With Gatsas
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Ted Gatsas (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | January 25-February 2, 2012 | 495 | ± 4.4% | 27% | 29% | 1% | 43% |
- With Lynch
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Lynch (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 35% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 31-April 3, 2011 | 769 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 33% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Lynch (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 36% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 31-April 3, 2011 | 769 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 33% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Lynch (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 55% | 34% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 31-April 3, 2011 | 769 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 29% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Lynch (D) |
John E. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 51% | 40% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 31-April 3, 2011 | 769 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 36% | — | 11% |
- With Marchand
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Marchand (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 33% | 40% | — | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Marchand (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Marchand (D) |
John E. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 44% | — | 21% |
- With Stephen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 37% | — | 27% |
- With Sununu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
John E. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 30-July 5, 2011 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 45% | — | 19% |
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maggie Hassan | 378,934 | 54.61% | +1.98% | |
| Republican | Ovide Lamontagne | 295,026 | 42.52% | -2.51% | |
| Libertarian | John J. Babiarz | 19,251 | 2.77% | +0.56% | |
| Write-in | 666 | 0.10% | -0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 693,877 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic edit
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)
Results by congressional district edit
Hassan won both congressional districts.[32]
| District | Hassan | Lamontagne | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52.98% | 44.43% | Carol Shea-Porter |
| 2nd | 56.38% | 40.66% | Annie Kuster |
References edit
- ^ a b c Langley, Karen (September 16, 2011). "Lynch will not seek a fifth term". Concord Monitor. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
- ^ "Lamontagne, Hassan will face off in governor's race". Archived from the original on November 29, 2014. Retrieved September 11, 2012.
- ^ New Hampshire
- ^ Hall, Beth LaMontagne (February 7, 2012). "Former state Sen. Cilley enters race for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on December 14, 2014. Retrieved February 9, 2012.
- ^ Marchocki, Kathryn (October 25, 2011). "Former Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan makes gubernatorial bid official". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
- ^ Claffey, Jason (April 4, 2012). "Democratic Field for Governor to Expand". Exeter, NH Patch. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ Timmins, Annmarie (April 5, 2012). "Political newcomer to run for governor". Concord Monitor. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ Landrigan, Kevin (February 11, 2012). "Mark Connolly, financial whistle-blower, won't run for governor". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved February 13, 2012.
- ^ Ireland, Doug (January 13, 2012). "Stonyfield CEO steps down". The Eagle-Tribune. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
- ^ Cresta, Joey (December 21, 2011). "Ex-Mayor accepts UNH job, ending political rumblings". The Portsmouth Herald. Archived from the original on March 7, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
- ^ "McLaughlin won't run for governor". The Laconia Daily Sun. January 26, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
- ^ Pindell, James (February 7, 2012). "EXCLUSIVE: Shumaker Will Not Run For Governor". WMUR-TV Political Scoop. Archived from the original on February 8, 2012. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Governor - Democratic Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 3, 2012. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
- ^ Houghton, Kimberly (September 19, 2011). "Ovide Lamontagne makes candidacy for governor official". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved September 19, 2011.
- ^ DiStaso, John (November 16, 2011). "Conservative Kevin Smith says 'I'm in' for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on January 28, 2012. Retrieved November 16, 2011.
- ^ "In NH, a big election year by the numbers, too". Nashua Telegraph. June 20, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
- ^ Curtis, Danielle (May 17, 2012). "Binnie won't enter governor race". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved May 17, 2012.
- ^ Pindell, James (January 26, 2012). "Bradley Won't Run For Governor". WMUR-TV Political Scoop. Archived from the original on March 29, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
- ^ Cleveland, Kathy (September 22, 2011). "Sen. Peter Bragdon rules out run for governor in 2012". Milford Cabinet. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
- ^ Landrigan, Kevin (March 8, 2012). "Manchester mayor Gatsas bows out of race for governor". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved March 12, 2012.
- ^ Landrigan, Kevin (March 31, 2012). "Kenda rules out run for governor". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
- ^ Pindell, James (February 13, 2012). "EXCLUSIVE: NH Education Board Chair Not Running For Governor". Political Scoop. Archived from the original on May 15, 2012. Retrieved February 14, 2012.
- ^ Landrigan, Kevin (February 13, 2012). "Stephen, 2010 GOP governor nominee, will not run again". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved February 13, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Governor - Republican Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
- ^ Schinella, Tony (June 12, 2012). "VIDEO: Babiarz Running for Governor". Amherst, NH Patch. Archived from the original on June 22, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "Governor - 2012 General Election - NHSOS". Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
External links edit
- Election Division at the New Hampshire Secretary of State
- Official campaign websites
- John Babiarz for Governor
- Jackie Cilley for Governor
- Maggie Hassan for Governor
- Ovide Lamontagne for Governor
- Kevin Smith for Governor
- Robert Tarr for Governor