The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
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Turnout | 72.18%2.32[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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County results Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Hill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. Representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.[2] With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.[3]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock |
Larry Jent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 70% | 6% | — | 24% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 76,738 | 86.6 | |
Democratic | Heather Margolis | 11,823 | 13.4 | |
Total votes | 88,561 | 100.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Essmann |
Bob Fanning |
Rick Hill |
Neil Livingstone |
Jim Lynch |
Ken Miller |
Jim O'Hara |
Corey Stapleton |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 403 | ± 4.88% | — | 1% | 33% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 35% |
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 5% | 1% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 35% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Hill | 46,802 | 34.4 | |
Republican | Corey Stapleton | 24,661 | 18.1 | |
Republican | Ken Miller | 24,496 | 18.0 | |
Republican | Jim O'Hara | 16,653 | 12.2 | |
Republican | Neil Livingstone | 12,038 | 8.8 | |
Republican | Jim Lynch | 8,323 | 6.1 | |
Republican | Bob Fanning | 3,087 | 2.3 | |
Total votes | 136,060 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[32] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg Political Report[34] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
Real Clear Politics[35] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | September 27 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 44.0% | 45.7% | 10.3% | Hill +1.7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 7% |
Montana State University | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 40% | 2% | 20% |
Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 39% | 8% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 39% | — | 21% |
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 38% | 39% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 39% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 41% | — | 28% |
With Bohlinger
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 33% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 40% | — | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 33% | — | 28% |
With Bullock
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 42% | 30% | — | 28% |
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 33% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 41% | 29% | — | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 40% | 31% | — | 29% |
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 34% | — | 28% |
With Jent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 39% | — | 35% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 30% | — | 44% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 25% | 33% | — | 42% |
With Wanzenried
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 31% | 33% | — | 36% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 40% | — | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 35% | — | 35% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 236,450 | 48.90% | -16.57% | |
Republican | Rick Hill | 228,879 | 47.34% | +14.82% | |
Libertarian | Ron Vandevender | 18,160 | 3.76% | +1.75% | |
Total votes | 483,489 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |